THREE big bookings fancies from Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) on Thursday’s Europa League action.
Lazio v Rosenborg | Thursday 18:00 | BT Sport Extra
Lazio have made a strong start in Group G and they will look to continue that when they play Norwegian outfit Rosenborg in Rome. Domestically, the Italians have started to collect a lot of cards lately and more are expected in this battle.
Pole Pawel Gik gets the whistle for this one and he likes a card. In 6/8 domestic games he has given at least five cards. In Europe the pattern is stronger with 5/5 having five or more cards. I’m taking the 6/5 with William Hill on Over 45pts.
Molde v Celtic | Thursday 20:05 | BT Sport 2
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer returns to take charge of Norwegian team Molde in Group A as they prepare to host Celtic.
The whisteblower in this tussle is Russian Vladislav Bezborodov. In his recent domestic games 6/6 have had four or less cards. In Europe it is 8/9 so very strong stats pointing at the unders.
Frankly, he is a new official to me but given the stats I am prepared to back under 45pts with William Hill at 11/10.
Braga v Marseille | Thursday 20:05 | BT Sport Extra
Braga do not score many goals but they are making a little go a long way as they welcome French aristocrats Marseille to Portugal.
This wasn’t a match that interested me initially until I saw the referee. Romanian Alexandru Tudor gets the job of keeping these two teams in check.
His last ten domestic games read four, six, 10, six, eight, nine, 16, four, four and eight. That is a success rate of 70% on this market. Impressive.
In Europe it is even better at 75% going over 5.5 cards with 6/8 winning. This looks an opportunity and I’m getting involved with over 5.5 cards with Bet365 at 4/5.
Lazio v Rosenberg – Over 45 Booking Points (6/5 William Hill)
Molde v Celtic – Under 45 Booking Points (11/10 William Hill)
Braga v Marseille – Over 5.5 Cards (4/5 Bet365)