10 winners from his last 12 bets, Gavin Murphy (@GamePlanGavin) has lined up another value pick on Wednesday night’s games.
Shakhtar Donetsk v PSG | Wednesday 19:45 | BT Sport Extra
This looks the hardest set of fixtures that I can remember from a bookings perspective with the games featuring a lot of French and Scandinavian officials who are typically lenient. Fear not though as we are avoiding these games. Instead let’s focus on the Group A clash between Shakhtar Donetsk and PSG.
Real Madrid stuffed Shakhtar on Matchday One so they need to rebound quickly. As we know they are notoriously difficult to beat at home losing just three of 16 group stage home games. PSG had a routine home win against whipping boys Malmo and a draw here wouldn’t be the worst result for the French aristocrats.
The man in charge of this tussle is German whisteblower Deniz Aytekin. He averages 4.5 cards per game in the Bundesliga which is a league which doesn’t typically produce many cards. Interestingly, he gives 72% of his cards in the second half of matches. That would imply 3.25 cards in the second half.
PSG have received 13 cards in Ligue1 this season and incredibly 91% have been in the second half and on top of this 5/8 games last night in the Champions League had four or more cards in the second half.
The quote for the entire match of over/under 4.5 cards has been steadily backed all day and “over” is now an 8/11 chance. However, whilst I wouldn’t talk anyone out of going over in that market I’m going to be a bit more ballsy and recommend over three cards in the second half at 7/4 with William Hill.
Shakhtar Donetsk v PSG – Over 3 Second Half Cards (7/4 William Hill)