A busy day on Channel 4 Racing on Saturday, Graeme Johnston (@GraemeJ_83) picks out two bets he really likes.
15:25 Newmarket | Channel 4
A 10 runner Listed race over six furlongs and there’s only one runner in the field I have any interest in backing. Lucky Kristale was a top two year old filly two seasons ago winning two Group 2 races and she comes in to this race without any penalties and looks primed to run a massive race.
Two years ago Lucky Kristale looked a filly to follow but she spent 2014 looking at the back of horses finishing down the field in the 1000 Guineas and the Coronation Stakes. She showed a bit more sparkle in a Group 3 on her final start but her report card came back saying must do better.
Connections took the brave decision to keep her in training rather than use her for breeding and after a slow start to the season it looks like that decision can be rewarded with a Listed win here.
A solid second to Tropics at Windsor was followed by a flopped effort at Royal Ascot in the Golden Jubilee, but she bounced back at York with a head defeat in a six furlong Group 3. She was running on at the finish and the stiffer finish here can see her come out on top in this.
She has won over course and distance in the past and her form is stronger than any of her rivals here. She receives weight from almost all of the field here and I’m very confident that she will visit the winners enclosure one last time here before she is retired to the paddocks.
15:45 Goodwood | Channel 4
The Doom Bar Celebration Mile has been won by some good horses over the years, most notably Breeders Cup Classic hero Ravens Pass. This year’s renewal is short on quantity but there is a potential star in the field in Kodi Bear who Clive Cox rates as possibly the best he has trained.
Kodi Bear was runner up in the Dewhurst last season and and went in to the winter as a contender for the 2000 Guineas. Unfortunately he wasn’t able to take his chance in the first Classic of the season due to a setback and he wasn’t seen until winning his seasonal debut at Windsor.
He was then sent to France for the Prix Jean Prat where he came fourth, but well behind eventual winner Territories. That somewhat shows his limitations but he was taken on for the lead early in that race and it was run at a fierce pace. The winner had the run of the race and I can forgive him that.
His last start was at Salisbury where he hacked up in the Sovereign Stakes where he ran about a bit in front and still looked a little green. That was against a decent field and he marked himself out as a colt to follow.
He was 3/1 at the start of the week to win this, and a combination of withdrawals and substantial support in the market has seen him trade as odds on favourite now. He looks like the horse to beat but I’m taking him on with an each way rival who has his ideal conditions.
Breton Rock has seven wins to his name, all of which have the word soft in the description. He loves to get his toe in and he’s got those conditions here. He’s lightly raced this season and his last race was a step in the right direction where he was beaten by a rival in Adaay who I believe is a Group 1 horse in waiting.
I cannot see any of his other rivals beating him, so if there are any flaws in Kodi Bear then Breton Rock is the horse to expose them. It could turn out we are playing for second, but I can’t see Breton Rock being out of the places.
15:25 Newmarket – Lucky Kristale to win (3/1 Bet365)
15:45 Newmarket – Breton Rock each way (11/2 BetVictor)
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