MARK Stinchcombe (@markstinchcombe) has previewed the Women’s Final and came up with a brilliant 7/1 bet.
Serena Williams v Lucie Safarova | Saturday 14:00 | ITV1
28 year-old 13/5 shot Lucie Safarova beat Ana Ivanovic in the semi-final to reach her first ever Grand Slam final without dropping a set in the whole tournament.
As correctly predicted she outhit Ana 36-25 in the winners department, while keeping on top of the unforced errors 31-35 despite serving eight double faults in 12 service games.
4/11 Serena’s path has been a bit more complicated to say the least. Since easing past Sara Errani in the quarter final, an ill Serena was a set and a break down against Timea Bacsinszky before reeling off 10 straight games. That’s now four of her last five games she has started ‘slow’ dropping the 1st set before coming back to win with something to spare.
A look at their tournament statistics shows they’ve both played to a high level:
Aces: Williams 49 Safarova 35
Double Faults: Williams 25 Safarova 27
1st Serve Points Won: Williams 71% Safarova 72%
1st Serve Receiving Points Won: Williams 130 Safarova 90
2nd Serve Receiving Points Won: Williams 83 Safarova 109
Breaks of Serve: Williams 30 Safarova 21
A look at the head-to-head shows Serena leading 10-0 spanning the last eight years, although Lucie has taken a set in half of those.
Based on this tournament and Lucie’s ability to take a set off Serena, it would be foolish not to get involved with SkyBet’s 7/1 that Williams drops the 1st set and comes back to win again.
The latest news is Serena is not practising at all before the final because of feeling ill, so she could come in ‘cold’ taking time to find her range. In contrast, Safarova won in the Women’s Doubles on Friday so will have had plenty of court time.
However, understandably Lucie got nervous when serving out the match for a place in the final against Ivanovic, hitting three double faults in one game. She said afterwards “The game at 5-4, I was really overthinking and couldn’t really concentrate to be there in the moment. My serve wasn’t working and, yes, I was a little bit fighting with everything on the court at that moment.”
Safarova is a shorter than 2/1 to win the 1st set so for me this is the value.
Serena Williams v Lucie Safarova – Serena Williams 2-1 LWW Set Exacta (7/1 Skybet)