AFTER their sensational FA Cup Semi-Final win last weekend, how will Aston Villa perform here against Man City? Chris Graham (@chrisgraham79) takes a look at the odds for us.
Man City v Aston Villa | Saturday 17:30 | Sky Sports 1
So this game pitches a side gasping and praying for the end of the season up against an outfit still high as a kite (hey, leave Jack Grealish out of this – WLB editor) after a famous Wembley win.
It’s the latter side (Aston Villa) that fascinate me here. Psychology plays a big part in my thinking when it comes to betting and I’m intrigued as to how they’ll approach this game.
Relegation would utterly destroy any sense of triumph this season if that occurred the week before the Cup Final, but you’d have to say that’s looking more and more unlikely with the ineptitude of many sides in that area.
Villa have averaged 1.03 points per game (PPG) this season so far. I’d like to think that might shoot up or down with five games left and a Cup Final on their mind.
The pessimists amongst you can look to Hull last season. Steve Bruce’s season were averaging 1.09 PPG before they reached the Cup Final. Following their semi-final win over Sheffield United that dropped to 0.20. Getting worried Villa fans?
The flip side of course is that Villa grow in spirit and confidence after their brilliant win and that pushes them towards a jump in their PPG. With eternal optimist Tim Sherwood in charge that’s a distinct possibility.
So when the first opportunity to test either theory comes when Villa are as big as 13/1 you simply have to back the positive angle.
On Sunday they face Man City and I won’t bore you talking about them, we know what they’re all about. A cluster of excellent players always capable of dropping a clanger. That clanger may be dropped on Saturday.
So, let’s test out this FA Cup Final theory. Can we expect a sharp rise or fall from the current 1.09 PPG of Villa? Let’s hope so. So with them at massive odds this weekend let’s back the positive side of the theory and back them to win here and avoid defeat.
Man City v Aston Villa – Aston Villa to win (13/1 Boylesports)
Man City v Aston Villa – Aston Villa +0.5 (17/5 888 Sport)
Easy win for Man City last Sunday eh?
Now you can back them at 4/1 to beat an Aston Villa side still hungover from reaching the Cup Final.
World Cup 2018: The Ultimate Betting Guide
Our 130-page spectacular, World Cup 2018: The Ultimate Betting Guide, is available to buy NOW!
The interactive magazine includes previews, videos, stats and tips for all 32 teams, features on Outright Winners, Top Goalscorer, Refs & Cards, Dark Horses, Flops, Knock-out Betting and much more.
22 football experts contribute to our Ask the Experts feature and there’s over 5 hours of exclusive audio with 5 of the planet’s most respected reporters who discuss the chances of each nation with our very own Mark O’Haire.
And if that wasn’t enough there’s a free bet up for grabs with our partners Ladbrokes.