CAN Liverpool maintain their slim Champions League hopes on Monday? Chris Graham (@chrisgraham79) previews the game for us.
Liverpool v Newcastle | Monday 20:00 | Sky Sports 1
Don't know about you, but I'm finding it hard to get excited about this game. The only plot-line attached to the match is Liverpool's slim chance of finishing in the Top 4.
Bookmakers make that as big as 13/2 to happen but by winning here they'll pull four points behind Man City with six games to play. That still requires struggling City to drop points more than once and Liverpool to put in a flawless round. Yeah, it's a very slim chance.
As for Newcastle, well I reckon if Alan Pardew left the club a little earlier, things could be a whole lot more nervous at this stage. The club have lost 12 of their last 20 games and picked up just two wins in 13.
With 35 points on the board, and four of the bottom five all losing at the weekend, the relegation train is almost certainly moving too slow to pick them up.
So, what do the odds say? Well, Liverpool are 5/11 best price to win this. That's a horrible price when you consider the tumult that the club have been through in the last three weeks. Defeats to Man Utd and Arsenal, along with one of their players causing all sorts of problems in the media, I'll avoid that price thanks.
The price that I like is Under 2.5 Goals. Because there's such a strong favourite in this game, the bookmakers have priced the Over/Under market as Over friendly, as the anticipation is that the favourites will definitely score at least one against the outsiders. I'm not sure it's that simple.
Liverpool just haven't looked prolific in goal this season. Over their last 10 matches, they've scored more than one goal just three times and drawn blanks against Blackburn and Besiktas.
For Newcastle, it's a far worse tale. They haven't scored more than one in a match since January and have failed to score in four of their last six games. I'm not expecting much here.
So at 6/5 with Betfair I'll get involved with Under 2.5 Goals and have an unlikely fiver on No Goalscorer at big odds of 12/1 with William Hill.
Best Bets
Liverpool v Newcastle – Under 2.5 Goals (6/5 Betfair)
Liverpool v Newcastle – No Goalscorer (12/1 William Hill)
7/2 Liverpool + A Free Bet
Paddy Power are giving two gifts to new customers on Monday.
First they'll be able to back Liverpool at 7/2, plus they'll get a free £10 bet if they place one of the same value during the match.
2 Comments
I priced up this match and completely agree with you that the price on Liverpool is very poor however I agree with the over/under bookies prices. I have over 2.5 priced at 1.81 and under 2.5 priced at 2.23.
Following your line of thought I went through all the markets I priced up and one that we might both agree on as having a small bit of value is Newcastle double chance at 3.2 – predicted strike rate 34.1%
Cheers Keith. Some really interesting thoughts there. Both sides certainly defensively vulnerable so perhaps I underestimated that in my thinking.
Yeah from a value point of view, no harm at all in the DC. I’m surprised at the number of pundits backing an emphatic Liverpool victory tonight.
Best of luck, and thanks for your comments.