ANOTHER winning week for Louis Ross (@KingLouis2105) at the Heritage, now he looks at the Zurich Classic.
Zurich Classic | Thursday – Sunday | Sky Sports
Matt Kuchar got us some place money at 25/1 last week. Although he lost out in the last five holes, after contending throughout, it’s very hard to compete with a last round of 63 that gave Jim Furyk the win.
The tour comes to TPC Louisiana this week and after weeks of me banging on about tough course, tight fairways and tiny greens, this is just about as easy as it gets.
A classical Pete Dye designed Par 72, this is a 7452 yard Resort Course with very few trees, wide open fairways and very little water in play. Pete Dye courses like this will produce a very low score (Billy Horschel won last year with 20 Under) but if you don’t pay attention, there are plenty of double bogeys to be had.
Par 5 scoring will be huge here and directly affects this weeks pick. The big hitters won’t have any real advantage. It will be iron play on second shots that will produce the winner. When looking at picks this week, I have concentrated on those with high rates of both birdie scoring and scrambling around the greens.
This is a very mixed field with 10 of the world’s Top 30 and about 50 players most of us have never heard of. This tournament has produced an awful lot of first time winners and it wouldn’t come as any surprise to see the winner starting at huge odds.
Sticking with class has usually paid off this season and my main pick will certainly come from the top of the betting. It is very easy to make cases for Justin Rose, Jason Day, Rickie Fowler and even Keegan Bradley (who has appeared in this column more than once). I am going to stick with a personal favourite and a player at the top of his game.
Dustin Johnson is this week’s main pick. DJ has come back from his little ‘break’ in magnificent form. A win and a play-off defeat going into Augusta rightly had him in the top four of the betting.
He performed admirably for three of the first four days and is the first player I have seen hit three eagles in one round. Nobody in the field should do better on the Par 5’s here and I think that’s where Johnson will win. 8/1 is short for me, but in this field, I will happily take that on.
Sean O’Hair disappeared for about three years, but this multiple Tour winner has come right back into form in 2015 and this course is near perfect for him.
His closing 64 last Sunday, on a course less than ideal, summed up his form right now. The putter is hot and it’s best to ride a player in his kind of touch. He’s a very fair EW shot at 40/1. He’s contended here a couple of times before. I like O’Hair to be in contention. Like DJ, he will need some luck with the weather. Thunderstorms are forecast and it’s very easy to get the wrong side of the draw and be out of it on Day 1.
Top 10 has been a great market recently. I’m not sure who tipped Kevin Streelman last week, but it can’t possibly have been me. Er, sorry about that. Great start, awful finish.
Anyway, back to the present and the aforementioned Keegan Bradley. 11/4 with Betfred in this field?? Keegan is in decent form especially for a guy trying to convert from the Broom Handle putter. He’s done that better than most (see Adam Scott’s troubles).
The 2010 winner Jason Bohn is available at 4/1 with Bet365 for a Top 20 finish. Going with the theme of players in form, Bohn played well at Harbour Town last week, closing with a 67. I was more than a little tempted by the 110/1 on offer as an EW bet, but I will be really surprised if he cannot deliver at least a Top 20 for us.
I still love the First Round Leader market for an interest on Day 1. I haven’t delivered a winner in the first few pieces here, although JB Holmes was damn close three weeks ago. Some big odds to juggle with are Jason Bohn, Johnson Wagner and Freddie Jacobsen. Morgan Hoffman is 33/1 with most firms which is about right. I will have the 66/1 EW on offer from Stan James though. Value bet.
Zurich Classic – Dustin Johnson to win (8/1 William Hill)
Zurich Classic – Sean O’Haire each way (45/1 Betfair)
Zurich Classic – Keegan Bradley to finish Top 10 (11/4 Betfred)
Zurich Classic – Jason Bohn to finish Top 20 (4/1 Bet365)
Zurich Classic – Morgan Hoffman First Round Leader each way (66/1 Stan James)