LOUIS Ross (@KingLouis2105) is like a kid on Christmas Eve. He just can’t wait for the Masters and he was bursting to share his best bets after bagging another winning weekend with his last bunch of golf tips.
US Masters | 9th-12th April 2015 | Sky Sports 4
It’s finally here – the 2015 US Masters. I think we are in for a classic and I hope you will all find something useful here to enhance your betting week.
Conditions
The weather can have a huge impact on any golf tournament, particularly wind. I have been keeping an eye on this for the last week or so and current predictions are for near perfect conditions on Thursday and Friday, when the draw can have an effect on any predictions.
Thankfully, the predicted wind is around 8-10mph; negligible for the pros. Rain is forecast at the weekend, but the main contenders will all be playing in the same conditions by that point.
Augusta is a lengthy 7,400 yards. If the course remains soft (which it will) that effectively turns this stunning place into a 7,800 yard monster and the big hitters have a distinct advantage.
Avoid Rory
Rory Mcilroy is a ‘Soft Track Bully' and most of his big wins have come when the sting has been taken out of the greens. He is number one in the world, although for me, not currently playing like it. More of that later.
I have a confession. Rory cost me around £800 when he collapsed on the Back 9, four years ago. I have never really forgiven him. So take my anti-Rory stance with a heavy pinch of salt. In all honesty,
Rory could win by 10 shots but he just isn’t playing very well in 2015 and most of his big wins have been preceded by a period of top class iron play and putting. That part of his game just isn’t working right now. I am not having any of Rory this week.
Experience
This course more than any other, is where experience is vital. Apart from Fuzzy Zoeller 30 odd years ago, nobody has won here on their first appearance.
There is virtually no rough at Augusta, but those who have played here know where they can and can’t hit fairways and of course safe places to miss greens. That kind of course knowledge can only be gained playing tournaments here.
Seven of the last 10 winners had a previous Top 10 finish at the Masters. Augusta is also generally a course for the elite. Eight of the last 10 winners arrived here already in the Top 20 of the world.
The other golfing majors can always produce a 150/1 winner. That really is not the case here and I don’t expect that to change this week. Although you shouldn’t be surprised to see an outsider sneak into the Top 5. Jonas Blixt finished second here with Jordan Speith on debut last year.
Trends
When looking for a winner, I want someone in the Top 20, who hits the ball miles and has a great short game. Quite a few fall into that category… Bubba Watson who has won two of the last three renewals will always be on my shortlist; he’s been playing well in 2015 too.
Dustin Johnson is a personal favourite; he has always hit the ball a long distance and his short game is always improving. Since coming back from his ‘break', he’s been in great form. However, he’s been in position to win a couple of Majors before and to be honest, has bottled it. But it’s hard to leave him out of contention.
Henrik Stenson is another contender with the right attributes. But he’s not been in the same form as last summer and comes here in poor health.
Outright Winners
Ok, I have been very sweet on Jordan Speith for a while now. Brilliant on debut when second last year, he’s been on an amazing run. In his last three starts he’s finished first, second and third. I think he’s the best golfer in the world right now.
He also gives it a whack and his putting is as good anyone. Not just the amount he holes, but even when he misses, it’s oh so close. Speith is my main pick and has been for some time. 11/1 (Betfred) is a bit shorter than I normally back but it is a very fair price.
Jimmy Walker is another on a great run right now and I am happy to take a bit of 25/1 each-way (888 Sport). His win two weeks ago in San Antonio was the easiest I have seen in a while and he managed three victories in a very short space of time last year. He should give us a really good run for our money
Top 10 and Top 10 Finishes
The Top 10 and Top 20 finishing position markets has been very kind to us since I started penning my weekly golf thoughts for WeLoveBetting. Keegan Bradley at 9/2 last week was a standout bet. Paul Casey was my Top 20 pick last week and he paid off nicely at 5/2.
Paddy Power have Casey at 6/1 for a Top 10 finish. He’s in great form right now and has the perfect game for this course. I will stick with course form for my Top 20 pick. Jonas Blixt was brilliant here in 2014; he putts like a dream, played reasonably well at Houston and at 5/1 with Paddy Power, I will take him on too.
First Round Leader
Finally, a fun bet at a big price for First Round Leader. We were on eventual winner JB Holmes last week at 35/1 and he was second only to a course record. You can almost guarantee these kind of fast starters having a great Day 1.
JB and a few others are known for it. I will probably have a pound on JB at 50/1 but as an each-way bet I like Cameron Tringale at 200/1. I know, I know. But I bet you one of the Top 5 at the end of Day 1 will have started at huge odds like Tringale and he played really well in the last round at Houston on Sunday along with JB.
I’ll be back here on Saturday morning with some in-play thoughts. I hope you enjoy the Masters as much as I will and fingers crossed we nail a few more winners.
Best Bets
Masters – Jordan Speith to win (11/1 Betfred)
Masters – Jimmy Walker (25/1 each-way 888 Sport)
Masters – Paul Casey Top 10 Finish (6/1 Paddy Power)
Masters – Jonas Blixt Top 20 Finish (5/1 Paddy Power)
Masters – Cameron Tringale First Round Leader (200/1 Bet365)
