BIG Bundesliga fan Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) has trawled the markets from Germany’s top tier in search of winners. All three best bets have been taken from the Asian Handicap market…
Borussia Monchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund | Saturday 14.30
Oh dear. On Wednesday morning I’d outlined by bets for the Bundesliga and that involved finding a way to get Gladbach onside. But by Wednesday evening Lucien Favre’s men had suffered an embarrassing DFB Pokal quarter-final exit at the hands of third tier Arminia Bielefeld. The Foals lost out on penalties and must now pick themselves up as they resume their battle for a Champions League qualification place.
Despite that midweek loss, the hosts are enjoying a brilliant campaign. Favre’s men are unbeaten in seven Bundesliga outings (W5-D2-L0), are the joint-top performers in 2015 alongside Wolfsburg (W7-D2-L1) and only once before collected more points in the first 10 games after the winter break in their history.
The Foals have won each of their last six at Borussia-Park, keeping clean sheets in their past four and recently became the first team to defeat Bayern Munich in their own back yard. The hosts are incredibly intelligent, tough to breakdown and built upon a solid defence, not to mention lightning quick transitions and a lethal counter-attacking game.
It’s a shame to hear centre-back and defensive lynchpin Martin Stranzl will be missing for Gladbach but there’s absolutely no reason why they should be considered outsiders for this duel. Since Favre took the reigns at Borussia-Park, the Foals have W42-D18-L10 of their 70 league fixtures as hosts. Take their last 17 matches on home soil and they’ve returned W12-D4-L1 figures.
The bet here is to take Gladbach +0.25 on the Asian Handicap line at 9/11 with BetVictor. With this selection, are stake is split across two handicap bets. The first half is placed on Gladbach +0 (effectively a bet on the Draw No Bet market) and the second half will be placed on Gladbach +0.50 (effectively the Double Chance market). This means that should the home side win, we’ll pocket a full pay-out but if they draw, we’ll still collect half of that potential full pay-out, only losing out should Dortmund win.
The Black & Yellows lost out 1-0 to Bayern Munich in Der Klassiker last weekend in a disappointing display. Sure, they bounced back to progress in the DFB Pokal in midweek against Hoffenheim but make the short journey to Monchengladbach with only one league victory at Borussia-Park in eight attempts.
Jurgen Klopp’s visitors have W3-D2-L0 in their last five road trips and were the first side to defeat Gladbach this season when Christoph Kramer scored a bizarre own goal to hand Dortmund a 1-0 win. But I’ve invested enough faith in BVB this season to know that there’s no way I could be with them again when they’re chalked up as favourites for such a tough encounter.
Take out their road results against the bottom-five and they've W1-D1-L7 – the victory came all the way back in August. All aboard the Gladbach Express!
Hamburg v Wolfsburg | Saturday 17.30 | BT Sport 1
Wolfsburg were far from their fluent best when seeing off lowly Stuttgart at the Volkswagen Arena last time out but they still managed to bag the handicap victory. This weekend the Wolves make the journey north to struggling Hamburg and again, the Asian Handicap win is the way to go.
Dieter Hecking’s men have already won 17/27 (63%) of their league outings this term and although only five of those three-pointers have come on the road, they have managed to come out on top in all three visits to bottom-six sides. Wolfsburg can be backed at 17/16 (BetVictor) with a -0.75 start on the Asian Handicap line and that appeals.
Like the bet in the Gladbach-Dortmund game, our stake is split between two bets. The first half of our stake is placed on Wolfsburg -0.50 (effectively Wolfsburg to win) and the second half is placed on Wolfsburg -1 (where we get our cash back should the Wolves only win by a solitary goal).
What this means is, should the visitors win by one goal, we’ll win half of our potential full pay-out (the -0.50 part) and have our stake returned for the second half. But should Wolfsburg win by two goals or more, both handicaps will be cleared and we’ll pocket full profit.
The visitors are enjoying their best ever season in terms of points accumulated and with 10 wins from their previous 14 visits to bottom-six clubs, Hecking’s charges should prove too strong. The Wolves have a wealth of attacking potential and could easily cut loose against an appalling home defence.
Hamburg axed Josef Zinnbauer as head coach after just six months having won just twice in 2015. Peter Knäbel was handed the role on an interim basis but saw the Dinosaur ripped to shreds by Leverkusen 4-0 at the BayArena in his first match in charge last weekend.
HSV have now W1-D6-L10 of their previous 17 Bundesliga fixtures, have failed to net in their last four and already been shut out on 16 occasions in 2014/15. Their 16-goal tally after 27 games is the worst top-flight record since 1966 and a first ever relegation from Germany’s top tier is again a serious prospect.
Die Rothosen have proven to be a tough nut to crack at the Imtech Arena against the league’s big guns this season but I can’t help but feel this match could get ugly. Hamburg struggle in possession and as already mentioned, Wolfsburg have the weapons to take HSV to town. Back the -0.75 selection and we’ll make money as long as the visitors win.
Stuttgart v Werder Bremen | Sunday 16.30 | BT Sport
This is a peculiar one. Stuttgart are favourites to beat Werder Bremen on Sunday. This is a Stuttgart side in the midst of their worst ever Bundesliga season. A Stuttgart side that’s W1-D4-L6 of their last 11 league games. A Stuttgart side that’s taken just nine points and scored nine goals in 13 matches in front of their home fans this season. Yeah, they’re favourites!
The Swabians put in a decent display at Wolfsburg last weekend but once again sloppy errors and calamity defending proved their undoing and Huub Stevens’ hosts have now conceded 16 goals in their last eight games. The Dutch coach admitted after their defeat last weekend that the table doesn’t lie and his team would need a huge improvement before contemplating Bundesliga survival.
So seeing Werder Bremen available to back at 13/12 with a +0.25 start on the Asian Handicap line really does catch the attention. Die Werderaner have been transformed under the stewardship of Viktor Skrypnyk and although their recent form shows just one win in six, the visitors have W6-D3-L2 of their last 11 with defeats coming against Bayern Munich and Wolfsburg.
As mentioned above, taking this selection means we’ll bag a full pay-out should Bremen win in Stuttgart but we’ll also take half of that potential full pay-out should the visitors pick up a point, meaning we’ll make money should Skrypnyk’s side avoid defeat.
It’s four games unbeaten on the road for Werder (W2-D2-), their best away run since 2011 and with the visitors unbeaten in five trips to Stuttgart (W2-D3) it’s only logical to find a way of supporting the visitors on Sunday afternoon.
Best Bets
Borussia Monchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund – Borussia Monchengladbach +0.25 Asian Handicap (9/11 BetVictor)
Hamburg v Wolfsburg – Wolfsburg -0.75 Asian Handicap (17/16 BetVictor)
Stuttgart v Werder Bremen – Werder Bremen +0.25 Asian Handicap (13/12 BetVictor)
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