Premier League Tips | 21st February 2015

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AFTER three winners out of four in the FA Cup last week, in-form Chris Graham (@chrisgraham79) is eager to get back to Premier League business this weekend.

Chelsea v Burnley | Saturday 15:00

Bookmakers are certainly expecting a comfortable win for Chelsea on Saturday when they face Burnley. Skybet are going as short as 1/6 on Jose Mourinho’s side winning. The West London club should certainly get the job done but forgive me if I pass up playing at quotes like that.

If you take a step back and look at Chelsea’s home league record this season, it’s a thing of great beauty. P12 W11 D1 L0 deserves huge respect, and when you bear this record in mind it makes Bradford’s FA Cup win at Stamford Bridge even more impressive.

34 points out of 36 at home is the most important thing to note from those figures, but the F and A column also tells a story. Chelsea have conceded just four goals at Stamford Bridge this season in the league, but just as intriguingly is the fact they’ve scored 26 goals.

Yeah it’s a fair amount, but it really only equates to less than 2.5 goals per game. When 11 of those 12 games were wins that seems quite a small number. I suppose the point I’m trying to make is that Chelsea rarely thrash opponents.

Burnley rarely get thrashed either. It’s 18 games since they lost by more than two clear goals and since they recorded their first league win of the season in November, they’ve drawn with Man City and Tottenham. They also drew with Man Utd at the start of the season at Turf Moor.

I don’t think they’ll lose heavily on Saturday and I can’t see Chelsea smashing in goals left, right and centre. I like the look of exactly 2-3 goals in this match. Amazingly that’s paid out in 10 of Chelsea’s 12 home league games this season and it’s available at odds against 13/10 with BetVictor on Saturday. Yes please.

Hull v QPR | Saturday 15:00

I reckon these are the two sides I’ve backed the most in the Premier League this season. You probably won’t believe me but I reckon I’m in profit with regard to QPR. Hull, perhaps not.

Both will come into this fixture on Saturday full of gusto after a positive couple of weeks. Hull secured an outstanding point (nearly three) at the Etihad and then three days later beat an Aston Villa side teetering on the brink. Their manager fell off the cliff two days later.

The removal/resignation of Harry Redknapp seems to have done great things for QPR. They lost to a last minute goal to high-flyers Southampton two weeks ago, and under the tutelage of the smart Chris Ramsey beat Sunderland 2-0 at the Stadium Of Light (their first away points of the season) last midweek.

Hull are a best price 11/10 with Coral and that’s too short for me. This is a team who’ve won just five of their 25 league games this season, with no back-to-back triumphs to their name.

They beat Sunderland on Boxing Day and followed that up with a defeat to Leicester. They beat Everton on New Years Day and followed that up with two lose-to-nils against West Brom and West Ham.

The highly regarded Chris Ramsey will have been able to preach his, umm, philosophy unto the QPR players over the week and a half and surely they’ll feel refreshed going into this game.

I’ll back them at +0.25 on the Asian Handicap at odds-against 11/9 with BetVictor. As long as they avoid defeat I make profit. Half my stake goes on them +0 where a draw will see my stake returned, while the other half goes on them +0.5 where a draw will return full profit on that half-stake. Understand? If not, just drop a question on the comments section below or tweet me at @ChrisGraham79.

Man City v Newcastle | Saturday 15:00

January’s are usually always horrid months, but my word Man City had a bad one this year. Knocked out the FA Cup by Middlesbrough and just a solitary win in the Premier League over the month has handed Chelsea a huge advantage in the title ‘race’.

Saturday marks the start of a new chapter though with Yaya Toure back from the African Nations Cup and new recruit Wilfried Bony joining the squad after his own AFCON adventures.

You’d like to think the team will be desperate to kick back into the groove here and start putting the shits up Chelsea. First up on their fixture list is Newcastle.

To be fair John Carver has proved me wrong so far with a collection of decent displays since the unglamorous Geordie took the reins. Saturday might just be as tough as it gets though at the Etihad.

You always have to be wary of Man City due to their occasional unfocused approach, but I do think they’ll be able to beat Newcastle comfortably on Saturday if they adopt the Year Zero approach.

City will be going for an 11th consecutive league win over the Magpies here and I’ll back them -1 at 5/6 with Skybet.

Best Bets

Chelsea v Burnley – Exactly 2-3 Goals (13/10 BetVictor)

Hull v QPR – QPR +0.25 Asian Handicap (11/9 BetVictor)

Man City v Newcastle – Man City -1 (5/6 Skybet)

Chelsea/Man City 5/1 Double

Our Bookie Of The Month BetVictor have gone to town this weekend with a stunning 5/1 price offer for new customers on a Chelsea/Man City double. The actual price should be 1/2!

If you open an account here, you’ll not only get the 5/1 double but also qualify to pick up some of our £50 free bet giveaway booty. You know it makes sense!

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Chris first got interested in betting back in 2000 when he began working in betting shops throughout Scotland. He has remained in the industry ever since, specialising in marketing and PR roles. Outside of betting, his interests are listening to Blur and following Queen Of The South.

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