THREE winning weekends out of four for our Asian Handicap expert Dark Dyson (@DarkDyson). Who's he backing this week?
Crystal Palace v Stoke | Saturday 15:00
This match came out with the lowest expected goals rating I've ever seen on my spreadsheet and needless to say, it is not one which the broadcasters were ever likely to be fighting over. However, Stoke are coming off a fantastic win against Arsenal and despite a poor run of recent results before that, they have been putting on much improved performances.
Palace on the other hand have gone backwards since tearing Liverpool apart at Selhurst Park a few weeks ago. They've picked up just two points from nine while scoring just once in those three matches. In fact, they have just eight goals from seven home games and Stoke as well have only found the back of the net eight times on their travels.
There is a bit of value on the draw but I think last weeks win against Arsenal is finally the turning point that Mark Hughes has been waiting for, so I'm backing Stoke off 0 on the Asian Handicap at 23/20 at Bet365, which at least returns our stake if the game does end level.
Arsenal v Newcastle | Saturday 17:30 | Sky Sports 1
I actually found a number of value bets on the Premier League coupon this weekend, but the one which literally leaped off my spreadsheet was the 1.25 line in this game.
With Arsenal priced up at around 4/9 all the value sits with the in form Magpies, when value and form are on the same side it is time to get involved.
The Gunners have really struggled through their last five games and were facing total humiliation after 45 minutes at Stoke, when they trailed 3-0. They did well to rally in the second half but with more injuries confirmed today, both Laurent Koscielny and Aaron Ramsey will be missing tomorrow.
I simply have to back Newcastle +1.25 at 11/12 with BetVictor who should be full of confidence having just provided us with a lovely winner, when beating Chelsea last weekend. Only an Arsenal victory by two clear goals, would leave us with a full loss.
Manchester United v Liverpool | Sunday 13:30 | Sky Sports 1
I have to admit that Manchester United are not playing well at the moment and yet with five wins in a row, Louis Van Gaal's team are sitting pretty in 3rd place with a Champions League spot well within their grasp.
Liverpool are also not playing very well, having been dumped out of the Champions League by Basel at Anfield in midweek, they won't need any extra motivation to try and get a positive result at Old Trafford which will put them back in the race for the Top 4.
Despite the numerous injuries at the back for United they have not been letting in many goals, with just three conceded over this five game winning streak. A large reason for that has been the outstanding performances of young Spanish goalie David De Gea, who is fast becoming one of the best in the league if not the world.
On the other side, Liverpool are having trouble finding the back of the net and although it would still be a shock if they don't score on Sunday, it's hard to see them outscoring United in Manchester. With a touch of value on the Red Devils at home and results going their way, I simply have to back Manchester United -0.5 at 5/6 with BetVictor.
Best Bets
Crystal Palace v Stoke – Stoke 0 Asian Handicap (23/20 Bet365)
Arsenal v Newcastle – Newcastle +1.25 (11/12 BetVictor)
Man Utd v Liverpool – Man Utd -0.5 (5/6 BetVictor)
