NFL Tips | 23rd November 2014

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NFL boff Tom Selwyn (@Tom_Selwyn) has run the rule over the best bets today.

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings | Sunday 18.00

Barring possibly the New England Patriots, there is no team playing better than the Green Bay Packers right now and I fully expect this to continue against a Minnesota team who played poorly against the Bears last week.

The way Green Bay has started of late, I’ll be backing the Packers to lead at the end of every quarter against the Vikings (6/4 Bet365). As mentioned, the Packers have started exceptionally quickly of late. In their last four games, even including the loss to New Orleans, they have outscored their opponents by 62 points to 10 in the first quarter – incredible.

Against a Chicago defence that has been is disarray recently, the Vikings couldn’t get anything going all game. The Packers pose a much tougher challenge than the Bears and I just can’t see them being able to keep up with Aaron Rodgers and co.

In the last meeting between the two teams, the Packers were up 42-0 by the fourth quarter. Although this was at Lambeau, and with Christian Ponder at QB for the Vikings, I can’t see this playing out any differently. The Packers are just a class above the Vikings right now.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans | Sunday 18.00

The Bengals are probably the hardest team to figure out this season. Going from getting blown out by Cleveland in your own stadium to putting a beat down on New Orleans in their stadium – baffling! They have been getting some pieces back of late however, and I like Cincinnati to get the win in Houston.

One of those returning pieces is LB Rey Maualuga. Without him, the Bengals had one of the worst rush defences in the league (143 yards a game given up). But when he returned to the line-up against the Saints last week they only gave up 75 yards on the ground, which was a season best for the team.

With reports suggesting that the Texans star RB Arian Foster will once again be inactive this looks like a favourable match-up for Cincinnati.

Another player on the way back is WR A.J. Green, who finally looked back to full fitness last week piling up 127 yards and a TD against New Orleans. With Green fit it gives the Bengals inconsistent (being generous) QB Andy Dalton an excellent option on the outside.

Houston’s offense, especially with a new QB in Ryan Mallett goes through Arian Foster and with him going to be limited at best, I like Cincinnati (11/10 Paddy Power) in this one.

St. Louis Rams @ San Diego Chargers | Sunday 21.05

Quite an interesting match-up in San Diego this weekend with teams that seem to be trending in opposite directions. With San Diego just about scraping past Oakland and St. Louis beating Denver, I’ll be looking at a generous handicap of Rams +6 (20/21 Bet365) in this one.

Last week San Diego QB Philip Rivers took quite a beating as the Chargers gave up two sacks and a whopping 11 QB hits to the Raiders defence. The Rams have got a lot better at rushing the passer lately, including eight sacks in a win over San Francisco, so it could be another long day for Rivers in this one.

Rivers himself has been struggling lately. Comparing his first six games to his last four does not make for good reading. He is down statistically in pretty much every category including his YPG and TD-INT ratio.

You also have to like how the St. Louis secondary has been playing. They blew up the Broncos receivers last week (I’m sure we all saw the nasty hit Emmanuel Sanders) and they’ll be looking to get on the Chargers pass catchers in the same way early on.

I can’t fully back the Rams in this one as their offense isn’t consistently good enough, but their defence is more than capable of keeping it close.

Best Bets

Green Bay Packers @ Minnesota Vikings – Green Bay Packers to lead at the end of every quarter (6/4 Bet365)

Cincinnati Bengals @ Houston Texans – Cincinnati Bengals (11/10 Paddy Power)

St. Louis Rams @ San Diego Chargers – St. Louis Rams +6 (20/21 Bet365)

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Tom got into betting after taking a marketing role at Sportingbet in 2009. He's since moved on to IT, but has remained within the industry. His passion in both betting and watching is the NFL, but also follows many other sports. Other interests include rock music, following the Patriots and being confused as to which Nottingham Forest team will show up each week.

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