NFL Tips | 20th October 2013

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Tom Selwyn (Tom_Selwyn) is back with more betting analysis of the NFL and three more bets for you to ponder.

 

I should have stuck with just the NFC East last week as the Colts played possibly their worst game of the season on Monday night to ruin a 100% week. Nothing division specific this week, but hopefully 3 winning bets nonetheless.

 

First up, I’ll be taking the Kansas City Chiefs -6.5 to beat the Houston Texans at, the newly crowned “noisiest outdoor stadium”, Arrowhead.

With Matt Schaub injured and TJ Yates performing badly last week, Houston will be starting rookie QB Case Keenum against one of the best defences in the league:

The Chiefs defence is ranked 1st in scoring defence (10.8 PPG) and sacks (31) while also being tied for 1st in interceptions (10), fumble recoveries (8) and defensive touchdowns (4).

They have been giving veteran QBs like Tony Romo and Eli Manning fits, so I think it’s going to be a very long day for Keenum.

While the Chiefs’ offense is not explosive, the Houston defence has not been playing well either – In the Texans’ four losses, they have been outscored 125-45. So with this in mind, I look for the Chiefs to win comfortably, covering the handicap in the process.

 

Next, I’ll be taking Under 46.5 Points in the matchup between the Green Bay Packers and the Cleveland Browns.

Last week the Packers lost WRs James Jones and Randall Cobb to injury in a win over the Ravens. They relied on a couple of great plays from QB Aaron Rodgers and a rejuvenated running game under RB Eddie Lacy to scrape the win.

I feel it will be tough sledding for the Green Bay offence again, especially coming up against a Browns defence that is ranked 8th against the run.

On the other side of the ball, the Browns offence does not look right under QB Brandon Weeden –struggling to sustain drives and put points with him under centre.

These factors lead me to believe it will be a low-scoring game at Lambeau Field.

 

For my final bet, I’ll be backing the Chicago Bears to beat the Washington Redskins.

I feel like I’ve been picking on the Redskins a lot this year, and this is down to two factors: firstly, the health of QB Robert Griffin and secondly, the Washington defence.

While Griffin looked a lot better when running the ball last week against the Cowboys, he was still being inaccurate and is completing fewer than 60% of his throws for the season. Inaccurate throws against an opportunistic Bears defence is not a good mix for the Redskins.

The Washington defence is giving up 28.6 PPG and they now face a Chicago offense that is putting up 28.7 PPG. With the better protection QB Jay Cutler is being afforded this year and a host of weapons that include RB Matt Forte and WR Brandon Marshall, I can’t see the Redskins being able to stop the Bears putting up a lot of points.

I do have a concern for the Bears’ run defence – down to the injuries they have suffered at DT – after they allowed Brandon Jacobs to roll back the years last week. But with Stephen Paea hopefully returning for Chicago, this should shore up the interior of their defensive line.

The Bears have won 3 of their past 4 games on the road and despite the fact they haven’t won in Washington since 2001, I feel they get the win this weekend. Hopefully they’ll follow Detroit, who I backed to break their losing streak in Washington earlier in the season.

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Tom got into betting after taking a marketing role at Sportingbet in 2009. He's since moved on to IT, but has remained within the industry. His passion in both betting and watching is the NFL, but also follows many other sports. Other interests include rock music, following the Patriots and being confused as to which Nottingham Forest team will show up each week.

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