Euro 2012 | Group C: Croatia v Spain

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Conspiracy theorists are out in force ahead of the final round of fixtures in Group C. With the Republic of Ireland down and out, Croatia and Spain face each other in Gdansk knowing a 2-2 draw would be good enough to guarantee both sides progress to the quarter-finals at Italy’s expense.

But with that being known for a couple of days now, those wanting to back the theory won’t find any value available. A result normally around the 16/1 mark is currently no better than 5/1! The draw is also shorter than would normally be expected – 15/8 best price. A 1-1 draw would send Italy through, should they beat Ireland but 3-3 or 4-4 scorelines from Gdansk would see them board the next flight home.

A similar situation unfolded against Italy back in Euro 2004 and the Azzuri were eliminated. While it was Denmark and Sweden who played out a 2-2 draw, Spain are odds-on to beat Croatia and top Group C on Monday night. For those rejecting the score draw theory, may want to get with the Spanish at 4/5 but should still be aware a draw would still see them finish on top of the group.

Vicente del Bosque’s side should still be trusted to do the right thing against Croatia – or at least attempt to. And we reckon La Roja look a solid bet to take maximum points. With Fernando Torres looking sharper in front of goal and Croatia’s shaky defensive pairing of Gordon Schildenfeld and Vedran Corluka looking laborious, Spain should round off their group games with three points.

Back Spain at 4/5 to beat Croatia.

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After starting his career in newspaper journalism, Mark soon found his way into the online betting world, forging a career in content, social media and marketing production. With a huge passion for stats, the Football League and European football, Mark’s other interests include playing rugby, following his beloved QPR and travel.

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