PDC World Darts Championship: Stats don’t lie for Tuesday’s tips

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THINGS are hotting up at the PDC World Darts Championship at Alexandra Palace and darts specialist Andrew Francis (@ALeagueAndy) takes us through his best bets for Tuesday night.

Robert Thornton v Daniel Larsson | Tuesday 18th 2018, 12:40 | Sky Sports

The bookies have Robert Thornton as favourites for this one but things aren’t as clean cut as they appear.

Thornton has the worst 3-dart average of anyone in the 2nd Quarter, as well as the worst outshot percentage, with Daniel Larsson comfortably beating him in both metrics.

Thornton is ranked over 100 places higher in the Order of Merit but I can see this one being really close with Larsson wanting to show what he’s got.

Krzysztof Ratajski v Seigo Asada | Tuesday 18th 2018, 14:00 | Sky Sports

Krzysztof Ratajski has had a good 2018 with a great performance in recent tournaments and a 3-dart average on par with seeded players Max Hopp and Simon Whitlock, Seigo whilst Asada is ranked lower in every metric except outshot percentage.

Ratajski will be hoping to carry his form with him into this event and beat the 64 appearance he achieved last year.

Daryl Gurney v Ross Smith | Tuesday 18th December 2018, 19:00 | Sky Sports

Daryl Gurney should be winning this match with relative ease with his pedigree evident for everyone to see.

His form can be a little patchy though and Ross Smith has a decent set of stats to back up a good performance against Paul Lim in the last round.

He’s likely to start quickly but Gurney’s class should shine through allowing him to progress with some ease.

Steve Lennon v James Bailey | Tuesday 18th December 2018, 19:10 | Sky Sports

Steve Lennon should comfortably have the beating of James Bailey in this one and both players are relatively big hitters at times with the 180 line looking very, tasty.

Lennon has hit 10% of the 100+ outshots he’s had in 2018 proving he can find the numbers when needed and I’d expect him to start fast and hard, racking up some early 180s.

Dimitri van den Bergh v Chuck Puleo | Tuesday 18th December, 20:30 | Sky Sports

The outsider for the tournament, Dimitri van den Bergh, has moved into the top 10 favourites with the exit of Peter Wright and he’ll be looking to prove why he’s the reigning world youth champion.

His stats are hard to look past; a 3-dart average of 94.6 and 17% of legs won in 12 darts or less means he should be hitting 180 with some consistency in a match he should win with ease.

Best Bets

Double – Daniel Larsson +1.5 Sets and Krzysztof Ratajski -1.5 Sets (93/50 Bet365)

Daryl Gurney v Ross Smith – Daryl Gurney to win 3-1 (21/10 @Bet365)

Double – Steve Lennon v James Bailey Over 5.5 180s and Dimitri van Den Bergh Over 3.5 180s (23/10 @Bet365)

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