European NAP: Struggling Swabians to come unstuck

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EUROPEAN football fanatic Mark O'Haire (@MarkOHaire) is looking to continue his hot European NAP streak with a selection from Sunday's Bundesliga action.

Borussia Monchengladbach v Stuttgart | Sunday 9th December 2018, 17:00 | BT Sport

Same time, same place, same side, same selection.

Yes, I put up Borussia Monchengladbach to beat Hannover in a match featuring Over 1.5 Goals a fortnight ago and I make no apologies for following in with the exact same bet from the Bundesliga on Sunday evening when struggling southerners Stuttgart arrive in town.

The Foals may have lost vital ground on runaway table-toppers Borussia Dortmund last weekend following a 2-0 defeat at fellow high-flyers RB Leipzig, but Dieter Hecking’s men are well capable of bouncing back in style here. The hosts are targeting a record-equalling 10th straight Bundesliga success at Borussia-Park and are backed to deliver.

Gladbach currently boast the Bundesliga's joint-second-best attack, with 30 goals scored, while Stuttgart have the division's worst, having netted just nine times. Hecking should have his first-choice front three of Thorgan Hazard, Alassane Plea and Lars Stindl at his disposal with the former pair each nothing eight goals already this term.

All three of the home side’s losses this season have arrived on the road and the North Rhine-Westphalians have delivered a 100% record as hosts by an aggregate 18-3, scoring at least twice in each encounter and winning by more than a solitary strike on five occasions.

Hecking’s hosts have now racked up two goals or more in all bar three of their 2018/19 outings, running out victories by more than a solitary strike in seven of those 13 fixtures. At Borussia-Park they’re averaging 2.18 Expected Goals per-game, firing in 11 attempts from inside the box and enjoying 36 touches in the penalty area on average.

Since Hecking was appointed before Christmas in 2016, Gladbach have claimed 18/31 (58%) home triumphs. Looking at games when welcoming bottom-half opposition, the Foals boast a splendid W13-D4-L0 return, averaging 2.41 goals per-game in that sample.

Struggling Stuttgart

Stuttgart picked up a vital victory at home to Augsburg last time out to keep the Swabians outside the automatic relegation places in Germany. Nevertheless, VFB are renowned tough operators at their Mercedes-Benz Arena base, and tend to struggle on their travels.

Die Roten have been beaten in five of their eight away days, and conceded at least twice in six of those encounters (6-15 on aggregate). The guests have been beaten in seven of their eight meetings with teams in 11th and above – shipping 20 goals – and since the start of last season Stuttgart have lost 15/24 (63%) away days, nine of which were by two goals or more.

Stuttgart have shown signs of life under new boss Markus Weinzierl although VFB have had the majority of their joy against basement battlers and have only managed nine goals this term. The southerners head here without suspended central midfielder Santiago Ascacibar and are giving up 1.81 xG on the road, conceding over nine shots inside the box on average.

This selection was 4/6 when Hannover came here two weeks ago, so take the 7/10 (Ladbrokes) on Gladbach delivering the goods once more.

Best Bets

Borussia Monchengladbach v Stuttgart – Borussia Monchengladbach to win and Over 1.5 Goals (7/10 Ladbrokes)

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About Author

After starting his career in newspaper journalism, Mark soon found his way into the online betting world, forging a career in content, social media and marketing production. With a huge passion for stats, the Football League and European football, Mark’s other interests include playing rugby, following his beloved QPR and travel.

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