Premier League – Expect late drama on the south coast

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PREMIER LEAGUE expert Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) is back to attack Saturday's 3pm best bets.

Bournemouth v Southampton | Saturday 20th October 2018, 15:00

Rewind a decade or so and I doubt that even the most optimistic Bournemouth fan could believe that they would soon be even-money to beat south coast rivals Southampton in a Premier League game.

That is exactly the position they find themselves in this weekend, however, as they are firm favourites to hand another defeat to beleagured Saints boss Mark Hughes.

While I could not oppose the Cherries here, my concern – as ever with Southampton – is that a side with that much ability cannot continue to produce such poor results.

Instead, I shall turn my attention to the goals market, which isn't too surprising when these two sides matches have combined for 48 goals across 16 games this term. Rather than back goals or Both Teams To Score, it is a late goal that I like the look of.

There have been six goals scored in the 85th minute or later in Bournemouth's eight league encounters this season, with five in Southampton's.

Marathon are offering 49/50 on a goal scored in the 74th minute or later and I believe this to represent excellent value. Such a bet would has obliged in 11 of their 16 combined matches this campaign and if you want to go back a little further, it would have enabled you to enter the winners enclosure in 26 of the Cherries last 46 top-flight matches (57%) and nine of the Saints' 16 games (56%) under Hughes.

I watched Bournemouth against Crystal Palace a couple of weeks ago and was impressed with their desire to win the game late on, missing two big chances before the Eagles eventually succumbed.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar scoreline in this match as it enters the closing stages and would not back either side to simply see the game out were they a goal to the good.

They have just four clean sheets between them this season, with Bournemouth's coming against a goal-shy Cardiff on the opening day and a Watford side who played with 10 men for the majority of the game.

Southampton's came against Burnley and a Wilfried Zaha-less Crystal Palace, and on both occasions they were indebted to Alex McCarthy for such an achievement.

I expect goals and late drama at Dean Court, so take the 49/50 with Marathon on a goal in the 74th minute or later.

My long shot also arrives from Dean Court as I'll be backing Bournemouth to win 2-1. This is 17/2 with BetVictor and in a game in which goals are expected, I think this represents excellent value.

Bournemouth recorded this result in their last home match against Crystal Palace and I expect a similar type of encounter here.

Southampton have already lost in this manner on two occasions this term and I feel that there is more than an 11% chance that they manage a third this weekend.

As stated previously, put between 15% and 20% of your usual stakes on this correct score.

West Ham v Tottenham | Saturday 20th October 2018, 15:00

Sometimes you look at a price and believe it's wrong but don't have too much data to back up such a belief and that is the case at the London Stadium this weekend.

I am aware that going back to the start of last season, Tottenham have won 11 of their 17 matches away to sides outside the Big Six but I simply cannot back them at odds-on quotes here. I feel that their return of 18 points from eight games rather flatters them and they have been beneficiaries of a relatively easy start to the season.

Additionally, I believe that West Ham deserve more than the seven points they have earned to date and they were particularly unfortunate to lose at Brighton last time out.

The Hammers have beaten Manchester United and drawn with Chelsea at home this term and they are certainly the kind of side who produces an improved performance against the better sides.

The likely return of Christian Eriksen makes me less certain of a home victory so I will air on the safe side and take the 39/19 with Unibet on West Ham in the Draw No Bet market.

In Marko Arnautovic, Felipe Anderson and Andriy Yarmalenko, the East London outfit have the personnel to hurt Tottenham. I certainly feel they will score on Saturday afternoon and think that'll be enough to ensure they avoid defeat.

This tends to be a bigger game for West Ham supporters than Tottenham fans and I wouldn't rule out a third home victory in four games against one of their biggest rivals.

Best Bets

Bournemouth v Southampton – Goal after the 74th minute (49/50 Marathon)

Bournemouth v Southampton – Bournemouth 2-1 Southampton (17/2 BetVictor)

West Ham v Tottenham – West Ham draw no bet (39/19 Unibet)

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About Author

I have loved numbers and sport throughout my life, so betting was a natural step. I started writing my own betting column at university and have continued throughout my adult life. I bet on football, golf and the NFL mainly but two flies going up a wall could also capture my attention. I am a West Brom fan and also follow teams in other sports but I think it's fair to say that no side compare with The Baggies!

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