FOOTBALL expert Daniel McCulloch (@DMcCulloch1984) is back to attack Saturday's 3pm Premier League best bets.
Man City v Fulham | Saturday 15th September 2018, 15:00
Unsurprisingly, Manchester City are considered near certainties to win this game but I am confident that Fulham will put up a greater fight than is perhaps expected. City are rightly favourites for the Premier League title and I would certainly struggle to put forward a case for Fulham to take anything from the game but there is plenty of evidence that Fulham will find the net.
City have conceded in each of their last three matches while Fulham have scored seven goals in their four games since they returned to the Premier League. In Alexsandar Mitrovic they have a striker that can cause The Citizens many problems and all the stats suggest that the 6/4 Betway are offering on Manchester City to win and Both Teams To Score is simply too big.
City have played 40 Premier League games at home since Pep Guardiola took the helm and have won whilst conceding in 19 of these matches. If you look at games against sides outside of ‘The Big Six’ then this record reads 16/30, suggesting that Even money would be value! So far this season they have allowed Huddersfield and Newcastle to breach their backline and I think it is fair to say that Fulham possess a greater attacking threat than either of those sides.
Analysing City’s home record under Pep also enabled me to uncover a couple of decent correct score prices. Incredibly, The Citizens have won either 2-1 or 3-1 in 15 of their 40 home games under the Catalan. Against sides from seventh down, this statistic becomes 13 out of 30. Given that a 2-1 home victory is a best price of 10/1 with Bet365 and 3-1 is 11/1 with the same firm, you don’t have to be maths genius to realise that those prices are a spot of value. I’d go with a quarter of a stake on each.
Bournemouth v Leicester | Saturday 15th September 2018, 15:00
Two of the league entertainers face off at Dean Court and I expect goals to be high on the agenda. Since the start of last season, 51 of their 82 combined league games have seen both sides find the net. However, while I feel that both Bournemouth and Leicester will score, a price of 7/10 is a little prohibitive.
I do want to get on goals in some way though and am conscious of the fact that 11 of Bournemouth’s last 16 domestic matches have seen a goal scored after the 85th minute. The Cherries have become the kings of the comeback and in a game featuring two sides who are better going forward than they are defensively and one that is unlikely to be settled early, I like the look of the 103/100 with MarathonBet on a goal after the 74th minute.
Under Claude Puel, 17 of Leicester’s 33 league games would have seen this bet emerge in profit, while going back to the start of last season, the same is the case for 24 of Bournemouth’s last 42 encounters. A late goal is on the cards here and I also wouldn’t put you off putting a few pennies on a 2-1 victory for either side.