EUROPEAN football enthusiast Ross Casey (@RossCasey24) unearths the value in Tuesday evening's Champions League clash from Old Trafford.
Man Utd v Valencia | Tuesday 2nd October 2018, 20:00 | BT Sport
To say that things have gone pear shaped at Old Trafford would be an understatement.
In their last three matches, Manchester United were fortunate to draw at home with Wolves, lost on penalties to Derby and were comprehensively beaten 3-1 at West Ham.
Of course, with Jose Mourinho in charge, on the pitch is only part of the problem, with public spats between he and his players seemingly happening on a daily basis now.
Next up for United (who let's not forget did win their opening Champions League match) is Valencia. The bookies have faith that United can return to form with best odds of 3/4, which I can't see too many punters backing.
For those of you who fancy another upset at Old Trafford, you can get yourselves a best price of 79/13 with Unibet on Valencia.
It seems a big price considering the current climate at Man Utd, but Valencia have lost each of their last four Champions League games, their worst ever losing streak in the competition and Mourinho has never lost any of his 10 games against the La Liga side as manager.
Man Utd have Jesse Lingard, Ashley Young and Ander Herrera and Marcos Rojo all out through injury, which means we are almost certain to see Paul Pogba play in midfield, which will cause even more of a circus around this fixture after his high-profile falling out with Mourinho culminating in a 70th minute substitution at West Ham last weekend.
However, if he performs to the level that he is capable of, he could well be the match winner here. He scored as many goals in the opening game of this season's Champions League against Young Boys as he did in his previous 37 matches in the competition combined.
Add to that the fact Pogba has been directly involved in four of Manchester United's last six Champions League goals, including all three this season and there is proof of just that. He is 11/4 to net in this one if that takes your fancy.
A virus has struck Valencia's players this week, although only 18-year-old Ferran Torres has not travelled with the squad along with injured Sant Mina. Other than that they have a fully fit squad to choose from.
Goals at a premium for Valencia
Just one of Valencia’s last eight games have featured more than two goals this season, conceding just eight in eight games. They have hardly been prolific in front of goal at the other end either, with only five goals netted. That is a poor return considering they have the likes of Kevin Gameiro, Denis Cheryshev, Rodrigo Moreno, Michy Batshuayi to call upon.
With Man Utd conceding six goals in their last three games, perhaps Valencia will attempt to play on the front foot and take the game to the Red Devils at Old Trafford, just as Derby and Wolves have done recently – but after losing their opening game to Juventus, that may be suicidal to their Champions League future.
For me, I like the odds of 21/20 on Under 2.5 Goals to be scored in this one. Valencia are defending well this season and are also failing to impress in attack.
With the market against us here, I like the odds-against price as it has landed in the last five Los Che matches and three of the last four meeting between these sides at Old Trafford.
Man Utd v Valencia – Under 2.5 Goals (21/20 Sportingbet)