Football expert Lucas Swain (@LucasSwain95) shares his best bets as Manchester City welcome Huddersfield to the Etihad Stadium on Sunday afternoon…
Manchester City v Huddersfield | Sunday 6th May 2018, 13:30 | Sky Sports
Ever since Huddersfield won the play-off final everybody exclaimed they were set for relegation. The Premier League new boys weren’t given a hope in hell by many people despite David Wagner getting his side to play some impressive football.
After a few months of the Premier League season and a fantastic start which actually seen the Yorkshire club occupy first place for a short while, many were happy to concede their initial predictions were actually in vein – myself included.
Now, however, they could be in trouble. With the worst run-in by a country mile having to play Manchester City, Chelsea and Arsenal, Wagner has to either hope Swansea/Southampton falter or to pick up some points in this Bermuda Triangle of fixtures.
Manchester City are being presented the title in this one, and you’d think with that the hosts have the opportunity to take it easy and possibly play a weak squad? Well, whilst that much is true, I wouldn’t bank on it.
This fantastic Pep Guardiola side have the opportunity to embed themselves in Premier League history with a record points haul, win tally and goals scored. Whilst the Catalan manager may not express his care for these records, there’s no way he wouldn’t want his side to achieve them.
It’s this thought process that is clearly in the head of many, because Manchester City are trading at a horrifically low price. However, that may be because the stats also support the home win in convincing fashion.
City head into this match on a three-game winning streak, Huddersfield have won just three matches on the road this season. This record makes Huddersfield the 4th worst travelling side in the Premier League season and the Citizens are the strongest at home in the league. It looks bleak.
There’s one market that stands out for me here, and it’s the combined win and over/under total goals market. Whilst it’s in Huddersfield’s best interests to sit deep and limit City, nobody has managed to do that this season in the Premier League at the Etihad and I can’t see it starting now.
The currently line for a Man City win and Over 3.5 goals appeals, and whilst four goals is seemingly a big ask, it’s landed in 7 of their home matches this season.
Another statistical trend I like the look of in the betting is the sheer number of goals Huddersfield have conceded in the second half away from home. Working on the premise the Terriers try to sit deep, I quite like putting my money on there being a late goal in this one.
Manchester City v Huddersfield – Manchester City win and Over 3.5 goals (4/5 bet365)
Manchester City v Huddersfield – Goal to be scored after 79:59 minute (83/100 bet36)