THE Champions League continues on Wednesday as Liverpool travel to Roma with a three goal advantage after their 5-2 win last week at Anfield. Dan McCulloch (@danmcc84) has found nine winners from his last 14 bets and shares another here.
Roma v Liverpool | Wednesday 2nd May 2018, 19:45 | BT Sport
Price is everything in the betting world and one of the first rules of the game is that you have to be prepared to change your view if the price dictates. That is certainly the case when Roma entertain Liverpool tomorrow night. Based on the evidence from the first leg there should be goals at Stadio Olimpico.
However, by doing some fairly basic digging you can identify that a best price of 2/5 on both sides finding the net is far too short.
One of the myths about Liverpool is that both sides tend to score in their matches. In actual fact Both Teams To Score has landed just 18 times in 36 league games this term (nine sides have a higher strike rate). Merely looking at this statistic suggests that the 9/4 on No in the BTTS market is too low. However, it is true that Liverpool's away games generally feature more goals.
When on the road, 11 of their 18 fixtures have seen both teams find the net and three of their five Champions League matches have also seen this occur. Collectively that is 14 out of 23 and a strike rate of 61%, suggesting that both sides scoring is likely but that 9/4 on this not occurring is still good value.
Roma's home record should also give us confidence. Yes, they were disastrous defensively away to Liverpool but the same was the case when they travelled to Barcelona and Chelsea (conceding seven across those two games). At home, however, they prevented both finding the net and are actually yet to concede a home goal in five Champions League games this term.
Given they have also faced Atletico Madrid, that is some achievement. Additionally, just 10 of their 18 league games have seen Roma and their opponents find the net, which further endorses the view that this is a value bet.
This angle could well be dead after 15 minutes but I simply take the view that there is plenty of evidence to suggest it'll win more than 31% of the time, which has to be the first question you ask when placing any bet.