THE Championship has just three games remaining and on Friday night sees two promotion-chasers battle it out in a London derby when Fulham travel to Millwall. We've got Ross Casey (@RossCasey24) to find a betting angle.
Millwall v Fulham | Friday 19:45 | Sky Sports
I'm very interested to see which side holds their nerve in this one. Both have something to lose in this one and it will be very interesting to see how that affects the game.
Fulham won the reverse fixture 1-0 in what was an even encounter won by Rui Fonte ‘conning' the referee into a penalty according to Millwall manager Neil Harris.
That was when both teams were pretty dire, to be fair as their league positions of 12th and 19th prove. Both sides have obviously improved since and I am looking forward to this one.
Millwall have moved up to sixth in the Championship table thanks to an unbelievable 13 game unbeaten run. If you just take into account home form then that run reaches an even more impressive number at 15.
They have kept three clean sheets in a row at home too, with their defence making sure that they have the base to go on and win games. Millwall have only conceded two or more goals at The Den four times in 24 matches this season and knowing they have that stability has allowed them to come out of the blocks and almost wrap up the game in their opponents eyes early doors.
They have scored in the opening 11 minutes in each of their last three home matches and Sky Bet are offering 7/1 that they net in the opening 10 minutes again here.
Interestingly, Millwall have played three of the top-six so far this season and are yet to lose any of those fixtures, including a decent 2-2 draw against champions Wolves.
When it comes to incredible runs in the Championship, Millwall are good but they cannot beat Fulham's. The Craven Cottage side are now unbeaten in 21 Championship matches and if they draw or win this one, they will go ahead of second placed Cardiff – although the Bluebirds do have two games in hand.
Fulham were 12th in the league when they lost to Sunderland away from home, 21 games later they are nine places higher and 53 points better off!
They score for fun – in fact no team has scored more away league goals than the 35 that The Cottagers have this season and they have netted in each of their 21 league matches since that 1-0 away defeat to Sunderland.
The betting angle
Two in-form sides meeting here and for me it looks a very tough one to call. After plenty of thought, I think that backing Millwall in the Asian handicap with a +0.25 head start at 42/41 with 188bet is the way to go.
Yes, Fulham are in incredible form, but so are Millwall and odds against on them not to lose at home when they are unbeaten in 15 looks too good to ignore. Fulham conceded a last gasp equaliser last time out and they may well play on their mind too.
The Millwall fans can also play their part as under the lights it is sure to be an intimidating atmosphere for Fulham to endure and backing Millwall not to lose at 42/41 appeals for me most.
Millwall v Fulham – Millwall +0.25 Asian Handicap (42/41 188)