FOOTBALL LEAGUE fan Rajan Hothi (@TalkStfc) takes a look at the odds for Tuesday night's crunch derby clash in League One between Bury and Rochdale.
Bury v Rochdale | Tuesday 3rd April 2018, 19:45
Bury face-off against local rivals Rochdale at Gigg Lane on Tuesday night with the Shakers currently rock-bottom of League One, while the visitors are only one place above them in 23rd.
When the two played earlier in the season, Bury managed to hold out for a 0-0 draw, despite having goalkeeper Joe Murphy sent off early in the second-half.
Since the sacking of Chris Lucketti at Bury, Ryan Lowe has taken charge of the Shakers. Lowe has managed three wins in 11 games with the most recent victory coming against Gillingham in late February.
Bury didn't have a Good Friday as they lost 2-1 against Bristol Rovers at the Memorial Stadium, a result that leaves them 12 points adrift of safty.
Dale have only lost once in their last seven. So far this month, Keith Hill’s men have beaten Walsall, Rotherham and Shrewsbury, and have managed draws against Southend and Wimbledon.
Last Friday saw Dale impressively beat promotion-chasers Shrewsbury 3-1 at Spotland.
However, Hill's men remain four points adrift from safety; though they do have crucial games in-hand on a lot of their relegation rivals.
Dale haven't lost a league game against Bury since 2010. Since then, they've played each other nine times in the league with Rochdale winning six and drawing three.
Bury's most recent win against Keith Hill's side came in 2015 where they ran out 1-0 winners in the FA Cup.
Boring, boring Bury
Bury have been woeful in front of goal this season, only managing to score 32 goals – the worst in the league. James Vaughan was Bury's main source of goals last term but he left in the summer and this season’s star Jermaine Beckford has been injured long-term.
In fact, the Shakers have only managed a measly 17 goals at home in the league. As well as this, the hosts haven't scored at Gigg Lane in a league game on 11 occasions.
To put this into perspective, Bury have scored in only nine of their League One outings on home soil – 11 of their 20 home fixtures have seen the Shakers fail to score! I wouldn't want to be a season ticket holder…
Form goes out of the window
We've all heard the saying. To a certain extent, this is true. A lot of derby games are close contests. Even teams on a bad run can turn up for derby games.
However, in this case, form could be key. Bury have been poor for a majority of the season, and have suffered four straight defeats in League One. While their opponents looked to have turned a corner.
Dale have only lost once in March and last week got a huge 3-1 win against Shrewsbury.
In this case, I think form could be important. Rochdale are gaining momentum as they look to avoid the drop and Hill’s troops will be desperate to get a win which could see them move to within a point of survival.
I think it's a smart move to back a Rochdale win at (11/8 BlackType). They haven't lost to Bury in the league since 2010, have just beaten Shrewsbury and have only lost once in their last seven.
Bury v Rochdale- Rochdale to win (11/8 BlackType)