THE Champions League continues this Wednesday as Tottenham welcome Juventus to Wembley. Ben Levene (@BenLevene96) shares his best bets.
Tottenham v Juventus | Wednesday 7th March 2018, 19:45 | BT Sport
Spurs valiantly fought back from 2-0 down in Turin to secure a 2-2 draw. Mauricio Pochettino’s side impressed on that occasion. Consequently they approach this game as 1/3 favourites to progress to the quarter-final’s, and 6/5 to win in 90 minutes.
Of course, they have the cushion of two away goals, but I get the impression that they’re too short here.
The prices imply that if this game were to be played 100 times, Juventus would only win 29 of those. Spurs have put themselves in a very strong position and definitely have a great chance, but they're no value at the price.
This is a Juventus side who have won 16 of their last 17 games domestically, conceding just one goal in that period. They’ve shown grit and efficiency to battle their way back to one-point behind Napoli at the top of Serie A with a game in hand.
Massimo Allegri’s side going away from home and winning a football match is not unheard of, and I believe that’s underestimated here.
En-route to the final last season, Juventus won all six of their Champions League away games, including a 2-0 win at Monaco, and 0-0 draw with Barcelona at the Nou Camp.
They’ve lost just one of their last nine away Champions League matches, and that was at Barcelona earlier this season. They’re form has picked up since and this is reflected in the fact that seven of the eight points they’ve dropped in Serie A this season came before December.
The year prior they drew 2-2 at Bayern Munich in the last 16 before losing in extra-time, having won 2-1 at the Etihad in the group stage.
Since the first leg, Paolo Dybala and Blaise Matuidi have returned. Matuidi will add robustness in midfield with his strong running, while Dybala is a match-winner, as he showed in last season’s competition.
Factor in that Spurs can still progress with 0-0 and 1-1 draws then we have an added edge when siding with Juve.
Card friendly Ref
Referee Szymon Marcinak takes charge here. In European knockout games his recent card counts read 8, 7, 4, 4, 2, 5. The anomaly was the 2nd leg of a tie where Real Madrid won 4-0 on aggregate against Roma.
He’s shown six penalties and six yellow cards in the 11 European games he’s taken charge of over the last two seasons, so is clearly not afraid to give decisions.
There’s a lot at stake here, and this means there is scope for lots of bookings, especially late on. The reverse fixture in Turin saw five yellow cards.
Tottenham v Juventus – Juventus Draw no Bet (6/4 Marathon Bet)