PREMIER LEAGUE expert Lucas Swain (@LucasSwain95) takes a look Monday night's contest between Swansea and Liverpool, pinpointing the value.
Swansea v Liverpool | Monday 22nd January 2018, 20:00 | Sky Sports
It’s a difficult time at the Liberty Stadium currently, with Swansea propping up the rest of the Premier League and collecting just eight points in Wales all season; match-going supporters have rarely had much to cheer about.
With Paul Clement came optimism; the well-connected manager was able to attract players such as Renato Sanches – once dubbed a wonderkid – to the south of Wales. However, the Portuguese international has struggled to settle, much like Clement, and eventually the Englishman was axed from his second managerial post in professional football.
Enter Carlos Carvalhal. Keeping with the Portuguese theme, Swansea took to the recently departed Sheffield Wednesday manager, who despite a poor finish to his time in the Steel City, had successfully led the Owls to two play-off campaigns prior to his departure by mutual consent.
In just five matches, it’s fair to suggest Carvalhal is pushing the Swans in the correct direction, losing just one game (W2-D2-L1), although it must be mentioned two of these have been against Championship opposition in Wolves. Nonetheless, with the Black Country club cruising the division, there isn’t much between them and the bookmakers actually chalked up Swansea as underdogs.
Having scored just five goals at home this season, it’s not simple to back the Swans to net against Liverpool, but the Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score market with Bet365 priced at 7/5 certainly appeals due to the nature of Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool side on the road.
Keeping just two clean sheets in 11 league matches away from home this season, and 10/11 matches featuring going Over 2.5 Goals, it’s rare you’ll find this much value in the goals market for a Liverpool match. But the question is whether Swansea will score?
Looking back at their matches under Carvalhal, the Swans were unfortunate to fire blanks against Tottenham after Andrew Ayew rounded Hugo Lloris, and aside from a 0-0 draw at Wolves just two days into the new managerial appointment, they’ve scored on their outings.
However, with poor home results and Liverpool flying off the back of crushing Manchester City’s perfect season, not to mention an unbeaten run extending 18 competitive matches, Mo Salah, Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino and co. should have too much for the Premier Leagues basement side.
Liverpool have been synonymous with making difficult tasks of teams at the wrong end of the table in the last two seasons, so Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score certainly has legs, but if you don’t quite fancy Carvalhal’s team to get on the scoresheet, a Liverpool victory and Over 2.5 Goals can be backed at a respectable 20/23 (Coral).