Brett Hogan’s South American Tips | 26th-27th April 2016


MAKING his debut on WLB, well respected Brett Hogan (@BrettHogantips) takes a look at three Paraguayan matches for us.

Sportivo Luqueno v Rubio Nu | Tuesday 22:00

Sporting Luqueno acquired Colombian 36 year old midfielder from Aguilas on a free transfer this season and despite his age has scored six goals in 15 games. Throughout his years in Columbia for several clubs discipline has always been an issue, he's notched six yellow cards so far this season plus a sending off but is someone who could have a big effect on this game.

The key player for Luqueno is Enzo Villamayor, a 20 year old Paraguayan strike who's come through the youth and has four goals in six games. His stock will only improve and if he starts expect a commanding performance from the youngster here.

Rubio Nu seem to have finally got the best out of 24 year old Diego Godoy. The Paraguayan midfielder has seven goals in 10 starts this campaign so far which is more goals then his entire career so far. It remains to be seen if he really is becoming a star in Paraguay but in his current form he leads Rubios goal scorer table and has to be viewed a serious goal threat.

The last away game Rubio failed to score in was a 2-0 loss to Luqueno in November. Though Luquenos results feature a lot of 2-0 wins I feel the attacking nature of both sides here promises more.

I expect Luqueno to notch two goals at least. Rubio have to be taken seriously though especially in the air so the price of 21/20 being offered on Bet365 for both teams to score + Over 2.5 goals is a generous price for this league and is what I recommend betting on.

General Caballero v Guarani | Wednesday 00:00

Osmar Leguizamon – the 21 year old Paraguayan forward played a season for Olimpia Ascunsion in 2014 but spent all last year a free agent until Generals promotion. This season he has seven goals in seven games and will be a big player for Caballero here.

Juan Aguilar should be vital for Guarani as he picks a great pass and scores himself. Those who watch Guarani games will remember hearing his name mentioned assisting goals if you can understand the commentators at all. This team seems to be gelling well and have found form recently.

Guarani have won their last five games after a dismal start to the season. General, new boys to the league have no home victories in their previous five games and face a real battle to stay in the top flight this year.

Both teams will score and this game has the potential to be a cricket score, say 2-4 but the values amiss price wise for goals so I'd recommend betting on the Guarani win currently offered at 4/5.

General Diaz v Sol de America | Wednesday 00:10

Julia Aguilar, the 29 year old forward returns to face the club he began his career with here. He joined Diaz from Capatia this year and has scored eight goals in 14 games.

Sol de Americas team is a whole list of goalscorers, they work together and don't focus on a single target man, they've made a few noted transfers in, such as Augusto Alvarez an Argentinian goal scorer from Crucero del Norte on a free transfer. No one player deserves special mention though as they play a team game, sometimes patient sometimes even erratic but they work together.

Diaz are the bogey team of Paraguay. They get beat by weaker teams but are perfectly happy to repeatedly beat teams such as Olimpia Ascunsion,

Sol have been a great side to watch this year and I view them as a middle third but high middle third team. Both teams will definitely score in this game, I'm not sure of the winner personally as there are a lot of variables that are telling me to avoid win draw win markets. So instead I recommend over 1.5 team goals for General Diaz being offered at 6/4.

This is based on the fact I'm sure both teams will score, Sol are a high standing team and Diaz like to do well against the bigger boys, noted in a 3-2 home win against Guarani this season already. The match is limited elsewhere for value and this represents a rare opportunity to find real value in Paraguay.

Best Bets

Sportivo Luqueno v Rubio Nu – Both Teams To Score & Over 2.5 Goals (21/20 Bet365)

General Caballero v Guarani – Guarani to win (4/5 Bet365)

General Diaz v Sol de America – Over 1.5 General Diaz Goals (6/4 Bet365)

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