PREMIER LEAGUE fanatic Tommy Buckley (@tbuckleythinks) runs the rule over Super Sunday’s contest between Wolves and Burnley from Molineux.
Wolves v Burnley | Sunday 16thSeptember 2018, 14:30 | BT Sport
Wolves – W1-D2-L1 | Scored 6 | Conceded 5
Everton (h) Drew 2-2
Leicester (a) Lost 2-0
Manchester City (h) Drew 1-1
West Ham (a) Won 1-0
Both Teams To Score – 2/4 (50%)
Over 2.5 Goals – 1/4 (25%)
Burnley – W0-D1-L3 | Scored 3 | Conceded 9
Southampton (a) Drew 0-0
Watford (h) Lost 3-1
Fulham (a) Lost 4-2
Manchester United (h) Lost 2-0
Both Teams To Score – 2/4 (50%)
Over 2.5 Goals – 2/4 (50%)
The Sky Sports cameras head to Molineux on Sunday for a fascinating clash that sees the Nuno Santo-inspired Wolves take on Sean Dyche’s Burnley.
Many will see this match as a clear clash of footballing styles and watching how that style-clash works out will be interesting but how it will play out in terms of result? I have to admit, I don’t think it’s as clear-cut as the respective results read this season, or the odds might suggest.
The statistics above show that Wolves have had a fair start to life in the Premier League – two scoring draws against Everton and Man City at home, a dramatic late win away at West Ham and just the one defeat when going down at Leicester.
As for Burnley, they’ve had a very poor, rather un-Burnley like start to the season, conceding goals and losing matches. The Clarets have earned just the one point and have only three goals to show for their efforts from their opening four fixtures.
The match odds certainly do reflect those respective form lines as we have Wolves at 4/5 (Marathon) while Burnley are north of 4/1 (19/4 BetVictor). I would imagine plenty of punters will be tempted into backing Wolves based on what we’ve seen so far, and given how they play with Ruben Neves, the inspiration.
Which Burnley will turn up?
Without doubt, it’s hard to oppose Wolves based purely on what we’ve seen. I’ve got huge respect for the Old Gold – the way they competed with Manchester City certainly impressed me but I just believe the absolute key to this match is working out which Burnley will turn up.
Will it be the Burnley that has had such a poor start, losing three times in the league and conceding goals, or will it be the Burnley that were so strong, so well organised and deservedly finished seventh in the Premier League last season?
There is no disputing that the Clarets have struggled because of their Europa League campaign which saw them play Thursday then Sunday, with what is a limited squad for such a demanding test. That Europa League run has left them looking physically drained, limited and disorganised when it came to domestic action.
That perhaps explains why they shipped seven goals in defeats to Watford and Fulham, and why they failed to really do anything of note against a Manchester United side that had previously struggled.
Now that Europa League campaign has finished for Burnley, I would expect to see Dyche’s Burnley get back to what they showed last season in terms of real team structure, defensive organisation and being hard to beat. And I do expect their results to improve from here on in.
International break has given Burnley a breather
Had the international break not happened, and if this fixture would have taken place a week after the last set of results, I would definitely have expected Wolves to win with a bit to spare. But I believe the time off could well have a negative impact on Wolves’s momentum, and on the flip side, be a positive for a Burnley side who badly needed a breather.
If Wolves can handle being strong favourites in a Premier League clash, if they can show what they are capable of and take the three points with style then I’ll applaud them and admit I got this one wrong. But at the odds, I think it’s worth anticipating Burnley will be better than expected, and that they can get a positive result they badly need.
That leads me to my first betting port of call and my main focus; I personally think 6/5 (Betfair) on Burnley in the Double Chance market is a better call than backing Wolves to win at 4/5. Having two of the three potential results covered adds a level of insurance to cover Burnley being good enough to either pull of a big win or a battling draw.
Going onto my next batch of bets – admittedly very small interests for added fun – I’m going to cover Burnley with a couple of correct score options. These are small stakes for big odds, making it worth the risk for a bit of interest.
Burnley have built themselves in recent years on tight, controlled wins with 1-0, 2-0 and 2-1 scorelines counting for 12 of their 14 Premier League victories last season. The Clarets won 2-1 five times, 2-0 once and 1-0 on six occasions.
For this match, you can back Burnley to win 1-0 at 10/1, 2-0 at 25/1 or 2-1 at 16/1 and if Burnley are to win this it is highly likely to be by one of those three results as I can’t envisage anything too clear-cut.
I’m personally going to cover all three of those scorelines as singles but there is also the option to consider Correct Score Group Betting and Burnley 1-0, 2-1 or 2-1 can be backed at 9/2 with SkyBet.
I’m putting my faith in Sean Dyche to get Burnley back to the basics they know and are very good at, and trusting them to at least get a positive result here. If they can win then that will be a very nice cherry on top.