SNOOKER specialist George Weyham (@GWSnookerTips) has spied a slice of value from the Shanghai Masters on Monday night.
Anthony McGill v Yan Bingtao | Tuesday 11th September 2018, 02:30 | Eurosport
A fourth career meeting between these pair – McGill leads 3-0 in head-to-heads. Even though McGill is currently the higher ranked (16 to Bingtao’s 23) the incredibly talented Chinese player is favourite for this best of 11 in the early hours of Tuesday morning.
And quite rightly as the 18-year-old is seen as the next big thing in snooker. McGill is quite an inconsistent performer and has lost three times already, all to much lower ranked players than Bingtao. Bingtao, on the other hand, has only lost once so far this season, 5-3 to Matt Selt.
It’s a match where I would favour Bingtao, even though he’s yet to perform to his great potential in his own country. The head-to-heads wouldn’t put me off Bingtao, but knowing which Anthony McGill will turn up, does.
Its in a different market, I’ve spotted that looks good value.
Bingtao hit 21 centuries last season – that equates to a ton every 16 frames. Very decent. However, this season you might say he’s due one, but he’s only hit one so far in seven matches. His one came in his first match of the season so it’s six without one.
In six matches this season, McGill hasn’t hit one break over 70. Last season he hit 14 tons, which equates to one every 33 frames. So he’s far from prolific.
McGill looks a fairly solid bet at 1/2 not to get one – Bingtao is 4/6 in the same market. If you combine both not to get one (under 0.5 match centuries) you get 13/8. I think that’s generous.
Only one ton between them in 13 matches yet but Bet365 go massively odds-on for one or more? They have priced it 4/9. That’s a stingy price if ever there was one.
These two aren’t in the mould of big break builders. They are going on the length of match basis and that this could go 9+ frames. It might well do but I would much rather be on 13/8 on no centuries than 4/9 there is one. It should be no bigger than 6/5, in my opinion.
Forty-five times last season, McGill didn’t hit a century in the match, that was from 57 matches. Adds to 51 no centuries in 63 matches if you include this season.
I can’t do these stats for Yan. His scoring last season was very good indeed. In 13 matches of best of 11, he hit eight tons. But with the pressure on Bingtao’s back and huge expectation, I do think he will be more worried about just beating McGill than being concerned about centuries.
Easier said than done but thats my take anyway (worked in the past).
This type of bet is a bit like backing a 0-0 draw in football. You gotta pray on missed chances and it’s the same on this 13/8 shot. I wouldn’t be brave enough to back a ton scorer at odds on in this match, so safer option is going for neither to hit a treble figure break.
Anthony McGill v Yan Bingtao – Under 0.5 match centuries (13/8 Bet365)