MARK O’HAIRE’S (@MarkOHaire) European NAP returns on Sunday with France’s Ligue 1 in focus.
Frosinone v Juventus | Sunday 23rd September 2018, 19:30 | Eleven Sports
A controversial refereeing decision in their promotion play-off with Palermo aided Frosinone in returning to Serie A for the first time in four years, but there’s little evidence to suggest the Canaries will be sticking around for long.
Moreno Longo’s men have picked up a solitary point (W0-D1-L3) and failed to score in their opening four fixtures, including a 5-0 shellacking by Sampdoria in their last outing here at the Stadio Benito Stirpe home.
Indeed, Frosinone’s opening four outings have produced a -10 negative goal difference from an aggregate 0-10 when taking on Samp, Lazio (0-1), Bologna (0-0) and Atalanta (0-4). Only Parma have attempted fewer shots and just Bologna have landed fewer on-target attempts at this stage of the season.
What’s more, the Canaries have averaged just 5.25 efforts from inside the opposition penalty box and generated just 0.50 Expected Goals from open play, the second-lowest tally in Serie A. So they’ll hardly be looking forward to a visit from European heavyweights Juventus on Sunday night.
Serial Serie A champs to silence their hosts
The Old Lady need no introduction. Juve ran out 2-0 winners at Valencia in the Champions League in midweek despite a first-half red card to cry baby Cristiano Ronaldo. Bosnian ace Miralem Pjanic twice scored from the spot as the Bianconeri again demonstrated their unparalleled defensive resilience.
In domestic duty, Max Allegri’s outfit have recorded a sole shutout in four, conceding a total of four goals in games against Chievo, Sassuolo and Parma. However, the visitors have conceded just 4.25 shots from inside their own box on average per-game and given up just 0.28 xG from open play per-game.
Coming into this campaign, Juventus had won 29/40 (73%) away days at bottom-half dwellers under Allegri’s watch, and keeping clean sheets in 18/40 (45%) of those matches. Drill down to encounters against bottom-six opposition and the Old Lady have silenced 13/24 (54%) struggling sides.
So I’m surprised – and delighted – to be able to support Juve to win ‘to nil’ at 10/11 with SkyBet. With rival firms as short as 8/11, there’s plenty of reason to get behind the Bianconeri making it five wins from five without conceding, at a value price.
Frosinone v Juventus – Juventus to win ‘to nil’ (10/11 SkyBet)