US Open – Argentine could fight his way to glory

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TENNIS analyst Gavin Mair (@gavinnightmair) has enjoyed a great US Open. He’s reassessed his Outright positions for the remaining action down at Flushing Meadows.

At the start of the tournament I advised some outright bets – http://welovebetting.co.uk/2018/08/wta-us-open-outright-value-to-be-found-away-from-leading-lights/ and http://welovebetting.co.uk/2018/08/atp-us-open-predictable-slam-to-ensue-at-flushing-meadows/

US Open Men’s Outright

I decided last night to have another look at the outright markets having watched an underpar Rafa Nadal scrap his way to victory over Karen Khachanov who only has himself to blame for not ousting the Spaniard.

For every bit as underwhelming as Nadal was last night the fact remains that he has a pleasant draw and it will take a combination of another poor day and a player with big weapons to better execute than Khachanov was able to do.

In the top half Kevin Anderson, Juan Martin del Potro, Milos Raonic and John Isner all may consider that on their best day they can topple Nadal and cause him the same level of difficulty that the similarly styled Khachanov was able to do last night.

The problem is that in head to heads Nadal is 5-0 versus Anderson, 11-5 versus Del Potro, 7-2 versus Raonic and 7-0 v Isner. The four players could all conceivably knock each other out.

Del Potro

Against Khachanov, Nadal had taping on his troubled knee and he wasn’t firing on all cylinders, but with his dominance over the four likeliest challengers he should still be favourite to go through. However, I have decided to have a tiny stake in the most likely of Nadal’s conquerors – Del Potro at 13/1 on the Betfair Exchange who is best placed to take advantage of Nadal’s weakened state.

Nothing tempts me in the bottom half where I still expect Novak Djokovic to come through but he, like Nadal, has looked short of his best having dropped sets to Marton Fucsovics and Tennys Sandgren.

His obvious challengers remain Roger Federer and Alex Zverev, neither of whom should be discounted. Federer hasn’t caught the eye so far, and whilst Zverev looks to be playing his best Grand Slam level tennis I believe it will be next season before he can be considered a realistic challenger to the status quo players.

US Open Women’s Outright

Before the start of the tournament I expected Serena Williams and Simona Halep to give each other a major workout in the 4th round. Halep fell at the first hurdle, whilst Serena’s level can not be ignored.

Serena has yet to be truly challenged so there is still some doubt in my mind about how she might fare against a consistent baseline counter puncher such as Sloane Stephens who looked in decent fettle against Victoria Azarenka. However, her price remains big enough to tempt me into backing her. Serena Williams to win outright is available at a best price of 9/2 with Betfair.

In my pre-tournament preview I sought value in alternative players at big prices. The two players that I selected were Daria Kasatkina and Elina Svitolina.

Kasatkina played at nothing like her best level and was knocked out in the second round by Aliaksandra Sasnovich. The Russian has all the tools to be a successful player, but has yet to consistently find the formula to make her a Grand Slam challenger. It will come.

My other pick Svitolina has reminded me of why I never back her in Grand Slams despite being priced up usually as a very short price time and again. This time, in my defence, Svitolina was priced far more realistically than she normally is.

Svitolina may have won a number of important tournaments in the past few seasons but the truth is that when all the top players bring their best level she is not an elite player. I fully expect her tournament to end before the prizes are handed out.

The bottom half of the draw will likely provide a finalist at a decent price – perfect for E/W betting. I have opted for two players at a decent price that I believe can break through to the final if they play to their potential.

Kvitova

The first is Petra Kvitova, available at 14/1 E/W with Betfair, who finds herself drawn in the 4th quarter that has had the removal of three of Kvitova’s four potential quarter final seeded opponents. Caroline Wozniacki, Anett Kontaveit and Mihaela Buzarnescu have all departed the tournament leaving Cincinnati champion Kiki Bertens as the last remaining seed in her section. Bertens beat Kvitova in Cincinnati but the Czech ran out gas before that match and I don’t believe she would suffer the same problem should they meet again. Furthermore, I don’t believe Bertens is value to sustain her recent form for too much longer.

Osaka

The other player I have elected to choose is Indian Wells champion Naomi Osaka who has looked in hot form during the first week. Conditions suit Osaka who has done well in her past two visits to New York and is a far better player this time around. I have backed Osaka at 33/1 on the Betfair Exchange, which I feel is a big price and can be managed accordingly as the tournament develops.

I have ignored the 3rd quarter which looks very open and could see one of several possibilities advance to the semifinals.

Best Bets

Men’s US Open Outright – Juan Martin del Potro to win outright (13/1 Betfair exchange)

Women’s US Open Outright – Serena Williams to win outright (9/2 Betfair)

Women’s US Open Outright – Petra Kvitova to win outright (14/1 each-way Bet Victor)

Women’s US Open Outright – Naomi Osaka to win outright (33/1 Betfair Exchange)

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I first got into tennis betting when Andy Murray started to emerge as a top level player. Inspired by reading the likes of Moneyball and Soccernomics, I have improved my betting by using statistical analysis to help indicate where the value lies. Over the years I have written for tennis betting websites, and focus my writing on outright markets where I have had three successful seasons since I started betting these markets in 2016.

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