FOOTBALL LEAGUE fanatic Ben Levene (@benlevene96) is on duty to give his best bets from Tuesday’s EFL card
Luton v Southend | Tuesday 21st August 2018, 19:45
Southend stormed to a first victory of the season at the weekend but Chris Powell’s side were unfortunate not to have taken three-points in either of the games prior.
Only Walsall have produced more expected goals than the Shrimpers so far this campaign, with no sides taking more shots.
At the other end, only Barnsley and Sunderland have allowed fewer expected goals against, with the same two sides the only League One outfits who have conceded less shots than Southend.
They travel to a Luton side who too may consider themselves unlucky. The Hatters have had a tough start to life up a tier, with games against Portsmouth, Sunderland, and Peterborough – three of the four favourites for promotion.
Nathan Jones’ outfit have scored in 43 of their last 47 league games on home turf but they’ve shut out opposition in just one of their last eight at Kenilworth Road.
Luton will insist on playing out from the back and that could leave them vulnerable against a dangerous Southend front-two of Simon Cox and Tom Hopper.
Southend are 17/11 (Sportingbet) in the Draw No Bet market implying a 39% chance. That seems slim with the draw out of the equation given their performances.
Oxford v Accrington | Tuesday 21st August, 19:45
Accrington Stanley upset all odds to earn promotion last season and we can back them to do so again on Tuesday evening.
John Coleman has maintained that his team can more than hold their own in the third-tier. Bristol Rovers had lost just two of 14 on home-turf and yet Stanley were able to go away and steal the spoils. At the weekend, Coleman’s men battled hard to earn a point when hosting Charlton.
Oxford find themselves rock-bottom of League One, with the divisions worst attacking and defensive records.
They’ve been outshot comfortably across all shot-metrics and after Saturday’s 4-1 loss to Portsmouth, manager Karl Robinson stated the players were “wallowing in self-pity”.
Rob Hall and Ricky Holmes would add a whole different dimension in attack for The U’s, but pre-match gossip suggests both will miss out once again.
There is mounting pressure on Oxford, and if Accrington can stay competitive, they could punish their nervy opposition. Stanley can be backed at 133/100 (Marathon) in the Draw No Bet market.
Carlisle v Port Vale | Tuesday 21st August, 19:45
Port Vale boss Neil Aspin has indicated he’s happy with the six-points won from three matches so far this season.
Tuesday’s opposition, Carlisle, are winless in six games on home turf.
Only midfielder Jamie Devitt hit double figures for the Brunton Park based outfit last season. Creating clear chances is an issue, and boss John Sheridan opted for a 4-42 in order to solve it. That decision proved successful as the Cumbrians scrapped a 1-0 win at Cheltenham, but they’ve shown little to justify their 11/10 status.
Carlisle have been outshot in all three of their games this season – with only Yeovil and Cambridge allowing more chances inside the penalty area. Just Macclesfield have allowed more expected goals in League Two so far this season.
In Ricky Miller and Tom Pope, Port Vale have a strikeforce amongst the divisions finest, and that pair could prove the difference this Tuesday.
We can continue the Draw No Bet theme by taking the massive 41/25 (Marathon) about Port Vale.
Luton v Southend – Southend draw no bet (17/11 Sportingbet)
Oxford v Accrington – Accrington draw no bet (133/100 Marathon)
Carlisle v Port Vale – Port Vale draw no bet (41/25 Marathon)