THE Top Goalscorer market is always a fascinating puzzle for punters. We asked Football League fanatic Ben Levene (@benlevene96) to pinpoint the value from the 2018/19 League One season.
WLB Season Preview 2018/19 | League One: Top Goalscorer
Over the last 14 seasons, League One top goalscorers have averaged 27 goals per-campaign. However, that stat is somewhat skewed because Jordan Rhodes bagged a phenomenal 36 back in the 2011/12 season. In eight of those 14 seasons, scoring between 24 and 27 goals has won the award.
Last season, 40/1 shot Jack Marriot broke a trend of market leaders topping the League One scoring charts. In the three seasons prior, it was 8/1, 10/1, and 10/1 chances whom prevailed.
However, Marriot wasn’t the first finisher to return a profit at a big-price. That four season sample has seen two 50/1, and a 150/1 shot place for each-way backers.
Jonathan Obika (66/1 Bet365)
Not quite of the 150/1 ilk, but Oxford striker Jonathan Obika can outshine his 66/1 price.
The former Tottenham graduate has netted eight times in seven friendlies this pre-season. Whilst friendlies aren’t the best barometer for performance the following season, Obika has surely forged himself to the front of the queue.
He’s spoken himself of how good he’s feeling, saying “I feel fitter than last season. Pre-season was one of the toughest I’ve been through – I’m feeling the benefits.”
Obika, who’s previously hit double-figures in a League One season, has pleased boss Karl Robinson too. Robinson described him as “sensational” in July.
Oxford ended the last campaign scoring in four of five matches with the exception coming against champions Wigan. With the likes of James Henry and Rob Hall orchestrating from deep, the powerful Obika could profit.
Of the big prices, Obika has the strongest claims to get behind at 66/1 (Bet365).
Liam Boyce (28/1 SkyBet)
Burton frontman Liam Boyce finally has the chance to wow the Pirelli faithful, after an injury-stricken first campaign.
Boyce featured during the latter part of last season, amidst a dog-fight and did show glimpses.
The Norther Irish international had a phenomenal record over in Scotland, averaging almost one in two for a Ross County side who, with all due respect, were not the most threatening attacking side.
Burton like to put the ball in the box, and Boyce thrives when attacking crosses. Lloyd Dyer and Lucas Akins supplying balls into the box has been a feature of the Brewers play for some time now. Jamie Allen and Will Miller also offer the ability to play cute and clever passes.
I look at the names throughout the market, and while some catch my eye, Liam Boyce at 28/1 (SkyBet) is the best bet. I’m keen on this.