WLB Season Preview 2018/19 | League One: Stats & Trends

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WE asked Mark O’Haire (@MarkOHaire) and Ben Levene (@BenLevene96) to enter their bulging stats bibles to deliver us the best ante-post stats and trends ahead of the new League One season. 

WLB Season Preview 2018/19 | League One: Stats & Trends

League Winners (since 2005/06)

  • Average price – 16/1.
  • Average price this century – 17/1.
  • Average position finished year previously – 11th (six were relegated clubs, one was promoted).
  • 8 (62%) of the past 13 winners were priced up at single-figure odds with 11 (85%) of the past 13 winner priced at 14/1 or shorter.
  • 2 (15%) of the past 13 winners were priced at 50/1 or bigger.

Favourites (since 2005/06)

  • Average finishing position over the past 13 years (and this century) 4th.
  • Sheffield United (2016/17) and Wolves (2013/14) are the only winning favourites this century.
  • 10 (56%) of the last 18 favourites this century have won promotion with 15 (83%) finishing in the top-six and 8 (44%) winning automatic promotion.
  • Only 1 (6%) favourite this century has finished outside the top-10 with none tabling a bottom-half finish.
  • Sunderland are the fourth shortest favourites this century – the three shorter-priced teams finished 2nd, 4th and 6th.

Relegated Clubs (since 2005/06)

  • Relegated clubs have won League One on 6 (46%) occasions.
  • 10 (26%) clubs have won promotion straight back to League One with 16 (41%) finishing in the top-six.
  • 15 (38%) clubs finished in the bottom-half having dropped down to League One and 5 (13%) suffered a second relegation.
  • Average finishing position of a relegated club – 9th.

Promoted Clubs (since 2005/06)

  • Average finishing position of a promoted club – 13th.
  • Only 6 (12%) promoted clubs have suffered immediate relegation back to League Two.
  • In each of the past 6 seasons, all three promoted clubs have survived.
  • Promoted sides have won successive promotions on 4 occasions (8%), 9 (17%) have made the top-six with half (50%) finishing in the top-half.

Unsuccessful Play-Off Campaigns (since 2005/06)

  • The average finish of a losing play-off finalist is 12th – only 1 won automatic promotion with 7 (54%) finishing in the bottom-half and 2 (13%) suffering relegation.
  • The average finishing position of a side involved in an unsuccessful play-off campaign is 10th.
  • 3 (8%) of the past 39 clubs  involved in an unsuccessful play-off campaign won automatic promotion – 3 (8%) also suffered relegation.
  • In 10 of the last 11 seasons, a team that lost out in the play-offs bounced back with a top-six finish.

Any Other Business (since 2005/06)

  • The average price of the top three clubs is 20/1 with 10 (26%) sides being priced up at 20/1 or bigger and 6 (15%) chalked up at 40/1 or larger.
  • In 3 of the past 5 seasons, a side finishing in the top three has been priced up at 33/1 or larger.
  • The top scoring (or joint top-scoring) side has won the league in 7 of the past 13 years and been promoted on 11 occasions (average finish 3rd).
  • The side with the best defence (or joint best defence) has been crowned champions in 6 of the past 13 years, winning promotion on 12 occasions (average finish 2nd).
  • The worst defence has been relegated in 9 of the last 13 seasons, finishing bottom on 2 occasions (average finish 21st).
  • The lowest scoring (or joint-lowest scoring) side has been relegated in 8 of the last 13 seasons, finishing bottom on 4 occasions (average finish 22nd).
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