Japan v Senegal – Data suggests underdogs are Asian Handicap value

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Sunday afternoon sees Japan take on Senegal in Moscow. Glenn Scurfield (@GScurfTrader) highlights the best betting opportunities.

Japan v Senegal | Sunday 24th June 2018, 16:00 | BBC

In their 2-1 victory against Colombia, Japan were surprisingly efficient. They posted an impressive Expected Hoal rating of 2.59, a number at this time only been bettered by England. Granted, the Japanese were pitted against 10 men for 96.87% of the game.

Their intensity was impressive and they showed an ability to break in numbers at pace. Akira Nishino’s side caused Colombia problems throughout and if that performance is replicated in their two remaining group games, the Japanese will cause problems for anybody in the knockout phase.

Senegal edged out Poland in a controversial encounter. M’Baye Niang’s goal to put the Lions of Terranga 2-0 up caused uproar amongst Polish players.

The betting

The market opinion of Japan can be seen through the implied probability currently attached with Nishino’s side. An implied probability of 25.77% is evident throughout Japan’s historic market data, with encounters against Paraguay, Colombia and Serbia all possessing similarities within the Match Odds market.

The Asian Handicap line for this one is set at 0.25. In the three mentioned games the closing price indicated a 51.28% chance about the Blue Samurai with a +0.25 start.

We can also consider Senegal’s recent games against South Korea, Bosnia, and Cape Verde. Across those games they averaged an implied probability of 45.87%.

Factor in the three Japan games analysed, and the average closing price for +0.25 give an implied probability of 50.76%. From this we can see there is a touch of value about Japan and it would be foolish not to take advantage of the 49/50 (Bet365) about them with a +0.25 start.

Goals

In terms of the goals, from the six game sample the average closing price for Over 2.25 has been around the 21/20 mark.

The market currently has that line priced at 6/5 (188BET) and that’s worth keeping on-side.

Best Bets

Japan v Senegal – Japan +0.25 Asian Handicap (49/50 Bet365)

Japan v Senegal – Over 2.25 Asian Goals (6/5 188BET)

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