National League – Shocked by a price on the non-league coupon

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NON-LEAGUE expert Paul Maddison (@LouthBigDog) shares his favourite fancies from this weekend’s National League betting coupon.

Dagenham & Redbridge v Maidenhead | Saturday 21st April 2018, 15:00

The games have been coming thick and fast for the Daggers. This will be their fourth game in eight days as they catch up with previously postponed games. Although they still have an outside chance of the play offs they would need a miracle to reach them and their opponents here are also in mid table with neither relegation being a threat and play offs unreachable.

Their game on Thursday against Guiseley was also seen as a ‘dead rubber’ that game produced eight goals (seven in the first half). The other two games they’ve played in this hectic period also produced goals. Dagenham have seen an average of 3.23 goals per game at home this season, the second highest in the division behind free scoring AFC Fylde.

Their opponents Maidenhead have seen an average of 3.19 goals away from home, also the second highest total for away teams in the league. Since they have been pretty much safe from relegation all three of their games have seen over 2.5 goals too.

I’m hoping with the pressure off it will lead to an attacking end to end game with both teams having plenty of chances. The Daggers tiredness may also play a part and we could see some defence mistakes.

Over 2.5 goals is available at 77/100 with Marathon and that looks more than reasonable.

Ebbsfleet v Sutton | Saturday 21st April 2018, 15:00

Ebbsfleet have timed their run for the play offs to perfection and are in great form. They have won eight and drawn three of their last 11. Their home form has been good all season with the fourth best home record in the league. They sit second in the five game form table with 13 points picked up from a possible 15.

Their opponents Sutton sit bottom of the same form table with just one point secured in five games. They have lost five of their last seven overall and four in a row on the road. That’s seen them drop from genuine title contenders to the possibility of dropping out of the play off places over their next two games.

I’ve read rumours that they may not have really wanted promotion as it would mean getting rid of their 3G pitch in line with Football League regulations – I read that on the internet so it must be at least 99% true.

Given home advantage and the recent form of both teams I was shocked to see an Ebbsfleet win priced up at 127/100 with Marathon. I was expecting them to be slightly odds-on.

AFC Fylde v Solihull Moors | Saturday 21st April 2018, 15:00

AFC Fylde are another team hitting form at the right time. They have the third best record over their last 5 games with only the previously mentioned Ebbsfleet and Tranmere picking up more points in that period.

With other teams in the play off places having difficult games this weekend they could well be in the running for third place which would give them a massive benefit in the new play off format.

They have the third best home record this season only bettered by the top two clubs, they have won four and drawn one of their last five at home, scoring an incredible 18 goals.

Solihull Moors have in fairness also been in great form recently to pull themselves away from the drop zone when it looked like relegation was very much on the cards for most of the season. The key to this run has mainly been their home form though, to be fair. They have the 21st worse away record in the league.

Although relegation is still a possibility I really cant see it happening, they’re five points clear of a Woking team who are in free-fall and the Moors have a game in hand and better goal difference. So Solihull may take their foot off the pedal a bit here.

Fylde have been chalked up at 5/6 with William Hill and Sky Bet and I think that’s too good to ignore.

Best Bets

Dagenham & Redbridge v Maidenhead– Over 2.5 Goals (77/100 Marathon)

Ebbsfleet v Sutton – Ebbsfleet to win 127/100 (Marathon)

AFC Fylde v Solihull Moors – AFC Fylde to win (5/6 William Hill)

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