THE Football League Trophy has been full of controversy again this year with the inclusion of Premier League youth teams, but it is Shrewsbury and Yeovil who battle it out for the final spot at Wembley to face Lincoln City. Ross Casey (@RossCasey24) shares his best bets.
Shrewsbury v Yeovil | Tuesday 6th March 2018, 19:45 | Sky Sports
Shrewbury Home Wobbles
Shrewsbury have been excellent this season and currently sit in second place in League One. They have won five of their last eight matches in all competitions but at home they are having a bit of a wobble!
Paul Hurst’s side have now picked up just one victory in their last seven at New Meadow. It is their away form that is keeping their season a success at present – they have won each of their last four on the road!
Yeovil’s 100% Record
Yeovil are a bit of a surprise package in this competition considering that they are 17th in League Two.
However, they have a 100% record against sides from League One in this competition, with Plymouth, AFC Wimbledon and Fleetwood all falling foul to The Glovers. There is a caveat to this however, as all three came at Huish Park and on the road this season Yeovil have been poor.
A record of three wins in 18 is not much to shout about, but their fans will be out in numbers and loud voices for this one as the club has subsidised the travel and the tickets for this match. Can they be the 1th man?
Asian Handicap The Way To Go
Looking at a poor recent home record against an overall poor away record, let’s look a bit deeper into the statistics.
Shrewsbury have only conceded 10 home goals in League One this season, so they have the second best defensive record in their division – plus they only conceded two in four at home in this competition.
So they are solid defensively – but do they truly put teams to the sword? No. The Shrews have only won by a two goal or larger margin seven times this season. That is a percentage of 15%.
Yeovil, whilst hardly ever winning away from home, have only lost by more than one goal six times on their travels this season, so let’s go with Yeovil +1.25 in the Asian handicap at 8/11.
It’s a bigger price than an outright Shrewsbury win and we will be successful if they lose by just the single goal, draw or win.
Shrewsbury v Yeovil – Yeovil +1.25 (8/11 188bet)
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