Lucas Swain-Britton (@LucasSwain95) takes an look at Monday’s Bundesliga action, using his expert insight in the division to find the value.
Borussia Dortmund v Augsburg | Monday 25th February 2017, 19:30
Monday Night Football in England is marketed and talked about amongst supporters as a delicacy. Premier League football after the first day back at work? The majority of fans sit back and welcome this coverage, aside from match-goers but we all know the FA/Sky Sports rarely factor them into their decision-making process.
Much has been made of the fan culture in Germany, who frequently voice their disdain to the DFL about their increasingly encumbering nature leading to protests, boycotts and demonstrations outside of stadiums.
The most recent one is the Bundesliga’s switch the become more marketable by moving some fixtures to Monday, the first of which was in Frankfurt, which in hindsight was probably a poor move given the fan culture of the Eagles.
Home fans delayed the start of both halves by launching tennis balls onto the pitch, many supporters left the terrace and occupied the space next to the pitch unveiling banners saying “no to Monday Night Football” and the fans whistled continuously for the majority of the match.
The same can be said for Borussia Dortmund, too, whose ultra groups are calling for a boycott of the match. As of the 24th of February, Dortmund had tickets on general sale, which is extremely rare and it’s expected a number of the 55,000 season ticket holders will opt out of the fixture.
Reading into the stats in this game can be a really misleading way of looking at this match, which is odd as I usually pick the majority of my bets based of statistical patterns. However, Dortmund’s goal and home record is manipulated by the awful start to the season before Peter Stöger was brought in to manage the side.
Further highlighting Dortmund’s poor start to the season, they’ve picked up just 18 points at home in the Bundesliga, eight of which have been in the last four matches and they’re now unbeaten in the league since the dismissal of Peter Bosz.
Because of this I’m still favouring with Dortmund, especially since the hosts have been revitalised following the arrival of Michy Batshuayi and return of Marco Reus. Whilst on the topic of personnel, Augsburg will be without Daniel Baier due to suspension and top goalscorer Alfred Finnbogason remains sidelined.
Augsburg have fired blanks in 45% of their away matches this season and Dortmund are starting to look like an impressive outfit. For me, the hosts to win to nil/Dortmund win BTTS no is the angle to go with.
Borussia Dortmund v Augsburg – Dortmund to win and BTTS No (6/4 bet365)