PREMIER LEAGUE analyst Daniel McCulloch (@danmcc84) takes a look Saturday’s contest between Tottenham and Everton.
Tottenham v Everton | Saturday 13th January 2018, 17:30 | BT Sport
Despite obvious concerns over Everton’s ability to create chances, at first glance Tottenham look a tad skinny at 3/10 to win this one.
Spurs’ record of 22 goals from 11 home league games may look impressive but 14 of those came in three matches and they managed just seven goals in matches against Burnley, Swansea, Bournemouth, West Brom, Crystal Palace, Brighton and West Ham.
They face an Everton side who have looked a lot more solid defensively under Big Sam but have still struggled to score many goals themselves. Since Allardyce took over they have scored just eight goals from as many matches against top-flight teams and given that three of those have come from the penalty spot, I struggle to see them breaching the Tottenham backline.
All things considered I would recommend the 5/4 with BetVictor on Under 2.5 Goals. Seven of Tottenham’s games at Wembley this season would have seen such a bet emerge victorious and if you exclude matches against other members of the Big Six, this figure becomes seven out of nine.
Like those other seven teams, Everton’s emphasis will clearly be on defending and given that Pochettino’s side have generally struggled to break down inferior opposition this term, I am really surprised that you can get odds against on such an outcome.
Under Allardyce, Everton are yet to concede more than two goals in a game and five of their eight matches against domestic opposition have seen two goals or fewer.
Whilst early evidence in the transfer window suggests that the former England manager is working hard to make his side more potent in attack – Cenk Tosun has arrived at a cost of £27m and at the time of writing they are in negotiations over the acquisition of Theo Walcott – I believe they are a long way from the finished article.
I believe that Tottenham will just about edge this game and given that they have scored exactly one goal in six of their home games, I would consider a 1-0 home victory if available at 7/1 or above come kick-off. Such a price is not possible at present, however, so I will stick to the goals market.
Tottenham v Everton – Under 2.5 Goals (5/4 BetVictor)
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