PREMIER LEAGUE analyst Daniel McCulloch (@danmcc84) takes a look at Saturday’s evening kick-off between Manchester City and Newcastle.
Manchester City v Newcastle | Saturday 20th January 2018, 17:30 | BT Sport
As a general rule, I do prefer backing ‘No’ in the Both Teams To Score market but the 6/5 Ladbrokes are offering on the ‘Yes’ option tempts me.
Despite a deserved defeat to Liverpool last week, it is a case of when not if Manchester City are crowned Premier League champions. The Citizens are still on course to create a Premier League points record and it would take a brave man to back them losing another game this season.
Their attacking prowess is clear for all to see and 39 goals from 11 home games is evidence of the potency they possess. Given the wealth of positive data for the home side, I simply cannot make a case for The Geordies getting anything from this game.
I can, however, put forward an argument for them scoring a goal. Both teams have scored in seven of City’s home league games as despite dominating for long periods they have found it difficult to concentrate defensively for 90 minutes.
Additionally whilst Newcastle’s attack is evidently not the most clinical, they have found the net in seven of their 11 away games, including scoring the opening goal at Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford. They lost those matches 3-1 and 4-1 respectively and I expect a similar scoreline on Saturday evening.
I also wouldn’t put anyone off from backing City to win and Both Teams To Score but it seems like an unnecessary risk from a tipping perspective given that the best price is 7/4.
Instead, I think a 3-1 victory for City is good value at 21/2. It has obliged in five of the 30 games since Pep Guardiola came to Manchester and I believe that it occurs far more than BetVictor’s odds suggest.