NFL expert Tom Selwyn (@Tom_Selwyn) shares his expert opinion on the best bet available from Monday Night Football.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tuesday 19th December 2017, 01:30 | Sky Sports
Another divisional matchup for MNF this week and a similar sort of setup; play-off contender travelling on the road to a division-based Florida team that’s not.
It’s a much more favourable line for us this time out though and I don’t think we’ll be seeing the sort of upset that cost us last week.
Even with a poor QB performance from Matt Ryan, the Falcons knocked off a far superior team to the Buccaneers in the Saints (who also have a lot more to play for) and they should be far too good for an error-prone Tampa Bay team – Atlanta -6 at 15/16 (188BET).
The main reason I like the Falcons in this one is the advantage that their offense should hold over the Buccaneers defence. Tampa Bay is 31st in the league in total yards a game, dead last against the pass, 18th against the run and 23rd in points allowed – pretty much all teams have success in one form or another against them.
Mix in a few injuries to their better players (LB Lavonte David, CB Vernon Hargreaves and DT Gerald McCoy are all ruled out) and this should mean a nice day for Atlanta’s offense that can attack you both on the ground with Davonta through the air with Julio Jones.
On the other side of the ball Atlanta’s young, speedy defence is playing pretty well, sitting at 9th in points allowed and 7th in total yards allowed.
This Tampa Bay offense they’ll now be going against is not as bad as you’d think in terms of yards, but QB Jameis Winston can be a little careless with the ball and turns the ball over too often and that kills the Buccaneers.
He turned it over THREE times last week and several more passes could have been INTs – the Falcons should feed on these sort of errant passes.
Division matches always have the chance to be a little strange, but the Falcons are better at nearly every position and I have faith that they’ll make that superiority count.
Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Atlanta Falcons -6 (15/16 188BET)