STATS expert Stats Bet (@statsbet) takes an analytical look at Sunday’s Bundesliga action, pinpointing the value bets according to the numbers.
Schalke v Hamburg | Sunday 19th November 2017, 14:30 | BT Sport
There’s a history of goals when Schalke meet Hamburg. Over the last five years when these two teams have met at the Veltins-Arena there has been an average of 3.60 goals per-game and the data points to this trend extending on Sunday.
Dominic Tedesco’s hosts rank in the top 10 for both shot ratio metrics on home soil – sixth in shot ratio and ninth in shots on-target ratio. With a current Expected Goals supremacy of 1.87, goals should be there for the Royal Blues.
Hamburg, who are currently 15th in the table and only two points above relegation zone, have only picked up three points on the road but are playing better than their points tally suggests on their travels.
The Dinosaur rank 12th in shot ratio and the same position for shots on-target ratio with an Expected Goals supremacy of 1.13 so we should see them on the scoresheet.
With a total Expected Goals of 3.00 and both teams expected to score, I will be playing Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score. To add further clout to this claim, four of the last six head-to-head battles in Schalke have seen this selection provide profit.
Schalke v Hamburg – Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams To Score (6/4 Coral)