STATS expert Stats Bet (@statsbet) takes an analytical look at Saturday's Bundesliga action, pinpointing the value bets according to the numbers.
RB Leipzig v Mainz | Saturday 9th December 2017, 14:30
It’s been a tough seven days for RB Leipzig. Having been hammered by Hoffenheim in Gameweek 14, Ralph Hasenhuttl’s men were then knocked out of the Champions League on Wednesday, so the Bulls will welcome a visit from struggling Mainz.
The hosts will want another crack at the Champions League and are currently sitting in the qualifying places, collecting 26 points from 14 games (W8-D2-L4). Hasenhuttl’s men have been excellent at the Red Bull Arena, out-shooting their opposition in 83% of games and rank in the top-four for both Shot Ratio and Shots On-Target Ratio, averaging 2.17 goals.
Home fans have certainly been entertained with 67% of Leipzig’s matches resulting in Over 2.5 Goals and an average of 3.00 goals per-game seen. RBL have an Expected Goals supremacy of 2.4 against Saturday’s opponents so Timo Werner and co will be looking to fill their boots.
Mainz are suffering at the minute with one win in the last seven games across all competitions and one triumph in their last five Bundesliga outings has seen Sandro Schwarz’s side drop to 14th in the table. Die Nullfünfer’s road record is a horrendous W0-D2-L4, scoring three goals, but the visitors’ shot stats are not as bad as the league table suggests, ranking 12th for Shots and ninth for Shots On-Target.
The issue seems to be their conversion rate which sits at a lowly 11% for away sides. With an Expected Goals supremacy of 0.74 against the Bulls, it looks like this poor run will continue.
Best Bets
RB Leipzig v Mainz – RB Leipzig to win and Over 2.5 Goals (1/1 Ladbrokes)
RB Leipzig v Mainz – RB Leipzig to score Over 2.5 Goals (6/4 Betfair)
