Stats: Underdogs represent real Tuesday value in Germany

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STATS expert Stats Bet (@statsbet) takes an analytical look at Tuesday night’s Bundesliga action, pinpointing the value bets according to the trends.

Augsburg v RB Leipzig | Tuesday 19th September 2017, 19:30 | BT Sport

Analysing the market perception of Augsburg v Leipzig indicates an implied probability of 25% being given to the hosts, the draw 27.3% and visitors a 50.5%. The market makes the hosts’ underdogs but I think it’s good to have them onside.

With Manuel Baum’s side possessing an implied probability of 25%, this situates them within the home implied probability range of 16.6% and 25% – 27% of host teams situated within the parameters have landed the spoils, equating to odds of 3.70.

Observing the current market perception of RB Leipzig indicates an implied probability of 50.5%. This situates the Bulls within the away probability range of 50% and 63.6%. Subsequently, travelling teams within that parameter have lost 28% of games equating to odds of 3.57 for home sides.

Therefore by combining both individual extracts of data, an overall probability of 27.5% equating to odds of 3.63 means there’s value on the hosts to take all three points at 73/25 (Matchbook).

Schalke v Bayern Munich | Tuesday 19th September 2017, 19:30 | BT Sport

Analysing the market perception of Schalke v Bayern Munich indicates an implied probability of 11.2% being given to the hosts, the draw 19.5% and visitors a 72.2%. The market makes the visitors heavy favourites but I think there is value on the underdog.

With the Royal Blues possessing an implied probability of 11.2%, this situates them within the home implied probability range of 10% and 16.6% – 26% of host teams situated within the parameters have landed the spoils, equating to odds of 3.84.

Observing the current market perception of Bayern indicates an implied probability of 72.2%. This situates Carlo Ancelotti’s side within the away probability range of 64% and 74.6%. Subsequently, travelling teams within that parameter have lost 23% of games equating to odds of 4.34 for home sides.

Therefore by combining both individual extracts of data, an overall probability of 24.5% equating to odds of 4.08 means it’s been valuable backing the underdogs at 15/2 (Betfair).

Best Bets

Augsburg v RB Leipzig – Augsburg to win (73/25 Matchbook)

Schalke v Bayern Munich – Schalke to win (15/2 Betfair)

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