STATS expert Stats Bet (@statsbet) takes an analytical look at Friday night’s Bundesliga action, pinpointing the value bet according to the numbers.
Bayern Munich v Wolfsburg | Friday 22nd September 2017, 19:30 | BT Sport
Analysing the market perception of Bayern Munich indicates an implied win probability of 86.6% being given to the hosts, the draw 10.8% and visitors a 4.5%. With the market making the hosts heavy favourites, we will be looking it to the goals market.
With Carlo Ancelotti’s side possessing an implied probability of 86.6%, this situates them within the home implied probability range of 64% and above – 55% of matches situated above this home probability have seen Both Teams To Score bank, equating to odds of around 4/5.
Observing the current market perception of Wolfsburg indicates an implied win probability of 4.5%. This situates the Wolves within the away probability range of 10% and lower.
Subsequently, travelling teams within that range have seen Both Teams To Score in 45% of outings, equating to odds of 6/5.
Data suggest both sides could score
Further analysis in to the shot ratio and Expected Goals data and there is no surprise that Bayern Munich top the charts for TSR (Total Shot Ratio), SoTR (Shots on Target Ratio) and XGR (Expected Goals Ratio).
Looking in to Wolfsburg’s away figures also shows some good underlying stats across the four metrics. With this data highlighting that both teams have impressive shot data, there is a great chance that both teams will score.
Bayern have a big match in the Champions League against PSG on Wednesday so their attention could well be elsewhere; therefore, I’ll be backing BTTS at 9/8 (188BET).
Bayern Munich v Wolfsburg – Both Teams To Score (9/8 188BET)