Stats: Data points to five overpriced Bundesliga punts on Wednesday

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STATS expert Stats Bet (@statsbet) takes an analytical look at Wednesday night’s Bundesliga action, pinpointing the value bets according to the trends.

Koln v Eintracht Frankfurt | Wednesday 20th September 2017, 17:30 | BT Sport

Analysing the market perception of Koln v Eintracht Frankfurt indicates an implied probability of 35.7% being given to the hosts, the draw 30.5% and visitors a 36.6%. With the market struggling to split them, I think there is value in the home win.

With the Billy Goats possessing an implied probability of 35.7%, this situates them within the home implied probability range of 25% and 37% – 37% of host teams situated within the parameters have landed the spoils, equating to odds of 2.70.

Observing the current market perception of Frankfurt indicates an implied probability of 36.6%. This situates Niko Kovac’s side within the away probability range of 36% and 50%. Subsequently, travelling teams within that parameter have lost 37% of games equating to odds of 2.70 for home sides.

Therefore, by combining both individual extracts of data, an overall probability of 37% equating to odds of 2.70 means there’s value on the Billy Goats to take all three points at 19/10 (Marathon).

Hamburg v Borussia Dortmund | Wednesday 20th September 2017, 19:30 | BT Sport

Analysing the market perception of Hamburg v Dortmund indicates an implied probability of 13.8% being given to the hosts, the draw 20% and visitors a 69.4%. The market makes the visitors heavy favourites but I think there is value on the underdog.

With the Dinosaurs possessing an implied probability of 13.8%, this situates them within the home implied probability range of 10% and 16.6% – 26% of host teams situated within the parameters have landed the spoils, equating to odds of 3.84.

Observing the current market perception of Dortmund indicates an implied probability of 72.2%. This situates BVB within the away probability range of 64% and 74.6%. Subsequently, travelling teams within that parameter have lost 23% of games equating to odds of 4.34 for home sides.

Therefore by combining both individual extracts of data, an overall probability of 24.5% equating to odds of 4.08 means there’s value on the hosts to take all three points at the Volksparkstadion at 34/5 (Marathon).

Freiburg v Hannover | Wednesday 20th September 2017, 19:30 | BT Sport

Analysing the market perception of Freiburg v Hannover indicates an implied probability of 36% being given to the hosts, the draw 30% and visitors a 37%. Again, with the market struggling to split them, I think there’s value in the hosts.

With Christian Stretch’s side possessing an implied probability of 36.%, this situates them within the home implied probability range of 25% and 37% – 37% of host teams situated within the parameters have landed the spoils, equating to odds of 2.70.

Observing the current market perception of Hannover indicates an implied probability of 37%. This situates the Reds within the away probability range of 36% and 50%. Subsequently, travelling teams within that parameter have lost 37% of games equating to odds of 2.70 for home sides.

Therefore by combining both individual extracts of data, an overall probability of 37% equating to odds of 2.70 means there’s value on Freiburg taking all three points at the Schwarzwald-Stadion at 15/8 (BetVictor).

Hertha Berlin v Bayer Leverkusen | Wednesday 20th September 2017, 19:30 | BT Sport

Analysing the market perception of Hertha Berlin v Leverkusen indicates an implied probability of 30.6% being given to the hosts, the draw 28.4% and the visitors a 44% chance. The market makes the hosts’ underdogs but I think it’s good to have them onside.

With the Old Lady possessing an implied probability of 30.6%, this situates them within the home implied probability range of 25% and 37% – 37% of host teams situated within the parameters have landed the spoils, equating to odds of 2.70.

Observing the current market perception of Leverkusen indicates an implied probability of 44% – this situates Heiko Herrlich’s men within the away probability range of 36% and 50%. Subsequently, travelling teams within that parameter have lost 37% of matches, equating to odds of 2.70.

Therefore, by combining both individual extracts of data, an overall probability of 37% equating to odds of 2.70 means there’s value for Hertha to seal maximum points at the Olympic Stadium at the available 121/50 (Marathon).

Mainz v Hoffenheim | Wednesday 20th September 2017, 19:30 | BT Sport

Analysing the market perception of Mainz v Hoffenheim indicates an implied probability of 36% being given to the hosts, the draw 27.6% and visitors a 39%. Although the market has the visitors slight favourites I think there is value in the home win.

With Rouven Schroder’s side possessing an implied probability of 36.%, this situates them within the home implied probability range of 25% and 37% – 37% of host teams situated within the parameters have landed the spoils, equating to odds of 2.70.

Observing the current market perception of Hoffenheim indicates an implied probability of 39%. This situates Julian Nagelsmann’s side within the away probability range of 36% and 50%. Subsequently, travelling teams within that parameter have lost 37% of games equating to odds of 2.70 for home sides.

Therefore, by combining both individual extracts of data, an overall probability of 37% equating to odds of 2.70 means there’s value on the hosts to take all three points at 9/5 (Sportingbet).

Best Bets

Koln v Eintracht Frankfurt – Koln to win (19/10 Matchbook)

Freiburg v Hannover – Freiburg to win (15/8 BetVictor)

Hamburg v Borussia Dortmund – Hamburg to win (34/5 Matchbook)

Hertha Berlin v Bayer Leverkusen – Hertha Berlin to win (121/50 Matchbook)

Mainz v Hoffenheim – Mainz to win (9/5 Sportingbet)

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