NFL 2017 : Five picks from week two with a shootout ahead for the Pats

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NFL nut Louis Ross(@LouisRoss67) shares his expert opinion on the best bets available on the second weekend of the NFL season.

Philidelphia Eagles vs Kansas City Chiefs | 18:00 | Sky Sports

Week 1 in the NFL is traditionally a tough one for betting. When the New England Patriots were humbled 42-27 at Gillette Stadium, we knew 2017 would be no different. In some ways, week two can be even tougher but for very different reasons.

The opening round of games is difficult to read. We are all a little in the dark about who has had a good draft or not and what the many injuries have done to each organisation. The hardest thing about Week 2 can be not taking week one too seriously. Watch those power rankings change drastically on Tuesday.

The theme of the opening weekend was lower than expected scoring and some dreadful Offensive Line play. Quarterbacks everywhere were made to look much worse than they really are because their protection failed them. Taking that low scoring into account I have chosen a couple of games where both teams scored and conceded freely in their first appearances of the new season.

Kansas clearly sprang the surprise of week one making Tom Brady look ordinary and unveiling a Rookie of the Year contender in Kareem Hunt. A debut of 246 combined yards and 3 Touchdowns is unprecedented in the modern game. Alex Smith throwing for 368 yards and four TDs is equally as rare. This is the game of the weekend for me. I expect it to be up there with the most entertaining we see in the next two days.

The Eagles 30-17 win in Washington was not quite as impressive considering the opponent but Carson Wentz got the job done. The key for Philadelphia could well be the ground game. LeGarrett Blount was eased into his new team carrying the nut just 14 times for 48 yards but now comes up against a vaunted defence that was shredded by Mike Gillislee for three scores. Blount is great value in the Touchdown markets but it’s outright and points odds that interest me. I really like Kansas to show the win over Brady and Belichick was no fluke in a high-scoring game. I had this as somewhere around 31-21 and so both Kansas +5 and over 47.5 points make plenty of appeal.

New England Patriots vs New Orleans Saints | 18:00 | Sky Sports

Brady and the Pats have already had plenty of mentions but they are the biggest name in the sport and no matter what their season holds in store for them it would be foolish to take one defeat too seriously. It’s only seven months since they won the biggest prize in the sport.

Bill Belichick is still the best Head Coach in history, Rob Gronkowski is still a beast of a Tight End and Tom Brady is still, well, Tom Brady.

New Orleans lost rather easily against a Minnesota team that may well be a little underrated but Drew Brees and the Saints are different animals in the Superdome. It’s rare that a game here isn’t a shootout. Considering how banged up New England are right now, I’m not taking a chance on match result but I am very hopeful of a Points fest.

If Alex Smith can take this Patriots defence apart, then imagine what Drew Brees could do against a unit now missing Dont’a Hightower amongst others. The Pats are also now minus Danny Amendola just a few weeks after losing Julian Edelman for the season.

The biggest issue for Sean Payton in this game, apart from facing a team still favourite to win the whole thing, could be the running back drama he has created for himself. Mark Ingram and rookie Alvin Kamara are fighting for game time with the legendary Adrian Perterson. All Day wants to be the man. I’m not sure the Saints have done the right thing here. Peterson doesn’t sound like a guy happy with rotation.

New England clearly has issues of their own but surely Brady will find this a lot easier than facing a top defence as he undoubtedly did last week. He can stretch the field against the youngest secondary in the NFL and I expect Chris Hogan and the returning Brandin Cooks to do a lot of damage. Cooks will draw an awful lot of double coverage and I really like Hogan anytime at 11/8 to grab his first points of the year. I had this as 34-28 Pats so I’m certainly going overs on total points. I can’t imagine anything but a good old-fashioned shootout between two great QBs and two distinctly average defences.

 

Best Bets

Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs over 47.5 points (11/10 Bet365)

Philadelphia Eagles at Kansas City Chiefs: Kansas -5.5 points (10/11 Bet365)

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints: Chris Hogan anytime TD (11/8 William Hills)

New England Patriots at New Orleans Saints over 56.5 points (10/11 Bet Victor)

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