NON-LEAGUE expert Paul Maddison (@LouthBigDog) shares his favourite fancies from the weekend’s National League action.
It’s been a crazy start to the National League season, which hasn’t made betting easy. In fact, Alan Alger (@Alan_Alger_) tweeted that this is the first time in the history of the competition that no club has won more than six matches after 11 games, backing up such claims.
Looking at the league table, just eight points separate Aldershot at the top to Flyde in 20th. Meanwhile, Ebbsfleet – who travel to Boreham Wood this weekend – have drawn nine of their 11 games.
So with my excuses out the way early, hopefully I can dig out three decent angles and hopefully earn a few of you folk some beer tokens this weekend.
Tranmere v Wrexham | Saturday 23rd September 2017, 15:00
The team I fancied for automatic promotion are playing host to the other team I fancied to go up. However, I haven’t been particularly impressed with Tranmere’s start to the season.
Looking at the odds originally, I was drawn to Wrexham in the Draw No Bet market at 73/20.
Tranmere have won just three of their opening 11 fixtures and currently sit in 17th. That’s a poor return for the title favourites.
The visitors have lost only three of their 11 outings and are starting to hit form. They’re unbeaten in six, keeping five clean sheets.
Instead of playing the Draw No Bet market, I’m playing it a little safer with Wrexham +0.5 at an attractive 27/20 (Bet365) on the Asian Handicap line, basically backing the Dragons to win or draw.
Guiseley v Dover | Saturday 23rd September 2017, 15:00
Dover have surprised me this season after changing nearly their entire squad, including 40-goal man Ricky Miller. However, they sit second with the second meanest defence, conceding just seven goals.
Dover also boast the best away record having won four of five on their travels.
Their opponents Guiseley sit third from bottom after scoring just seven goals in 11 games – the worst in the league – and firing blanks in 4 of their last six encounters.
Those stats make odds-against quotes of 41/40 (Sportingbet) look good value on an away success here.
Whitehawk v St Albans | Saturday 23rd September 2017, 15:00
For my last bet I’m heading to the south coast to take on Whitehawk again. They are in awful form, losing 13 of their last 15 and drawing the other two.
The hosts have the second-worst scoring record in the league and have conceded 10 more than any other team. They’re conceding on average over three goals per-game and amazingly they’ve been losing at half-time and full-time in eight of their 11 league outings.
The half-time/full-time angle is what’s seduced me here.
St Albans sit fourth, level on points with the league leaders but with a game in hand. It’s their away form that has been particularly impressive, winning four of their last five and keeping clean sheets in three of them.
Half of their away games have seen St Albans lead at the break and at full-time so the 9/5 (William Hill) on a repeat looks very generous.
Tranmere v Wrexham – Wrexham +0.5 Asian Handicap (27/20 Bet365)
Guiseley v Dover – Dover to win (41/40 Sportingbet)
Whitehawk v St Albans – St Albans/St Albans (9/5 William Hill)