SELECTABET (@selectabet) returns with another case study on international football. Using trends to find the best correct score value.
Thursday and Friday’s World Cup qualifiers have thrown up the best looking fixtures for my favourite bet of backing the international minnows to lose ‘to nil’.
Here’s my best three matches to take on a correct score bet based on some of the bigger nations handing out a beating or two.
Switzerland v Andorra | Thursday 31st August 2017, 19:45 | Sky Sports
Andorra stunned Hungary, and indeed the rest of European football, with a 1-0 win over the Magyars in the last round of FIFA World Cup qualifying fixtures ending a 66-match winless run, their first success since a victory over Macedonia in 2004.
Not that they’ll care too much but the win over the Hungarians was forged despite the Andorrans completing just 44 passes and signaled the country’s biggest football result to date.
I highlighted last time that they were an improving side but hopefully that result was a blip and we can get back to backing them to be beaten ‘to nil’, especially outside Andorra.
Lets not lose sight of the fact that they score just over one goal per-year on average. That single strike against Hungary was their 25th in 19 years of competitive football although it’s worth noting that they scored a 91st minute consolation against Thursday’s opponents Switzerland when they met earlier in Group B.
The Swiss won that one 2-1 in the first meeting between the two countries. Overall Switzerland have more quality than Hungary and Andorra appear to be a much poorer side on the road.
They’ve lost 30 goals ‘to nil’ in their last seven competitive matches away from home so if that trend continues then we should expect Switzerland to win fairly comfortably.
Cover a 3-0, 4-0 and 5-0 win for Switzerland.
Belgium v Gibraltar | Thursday 31st August 2017, 19:45 | Sky Sports
This could be the biggest mis-match of the fixtures week which pits 205th placed in the FIFA World Rankings, Gibraltar, against a Belgian side who are current number nine.
With just 16 competitive matches under their belt, Gib are the least experienced side in Europe and, like Andorra, don’t score too often. They’ve conceded 80 goals in those 16 matches and scored just five. This should be a canter for Belgium who may field some fringe players head of a trip to Greece on Sunday.
Gibraltar have already lost 5-0, 4-0, 3-1 and 5-0 this campaign while Belgium hit eight past Estonia at home in November so where do we start the bidding in this one?
I’m going to go above the average score of final and start at 6-0, as well as cover a 7-0 and 8-0 will for Roberto Martinez’s men.
Malta v England | Friday 1st September 2017, 19:45 | Sky Sports
Few teams are as reliable as England when it comes to backing them in qualifying matches. The Three lions have lost just six qualification matches this century and none since 2009 so don’t expect any kind of shock in Valetta on Friday.
The Maltese are marginally better than the likes of the aforementioned Andorra and Gibraltar but they’re only slightly more prolific in front of goal.
They average around one in every three, and indeed gave Scotland a scare on the opening matchday of Group F when they took a 1-0 lead – that was before conceding five at the other end.
England won the corresponding fixture 2-0 at Wembley and in four meetings have scored 10 and conceded one. It all points to comfortable but not spectacular win for Gareth Southgate’s men so back them to win 2-0, 3-0 or 4-0.
Switzerland v Andorra – Back Switzerland to win 3-0, 4-0 or 5-0
Belgium v Gibraltar – Belgium to win 6-0, 7-0 or 8-0
England v Malta – England to win 2-0 3-0 or 4-0
Bet on 3 x 3 x 3 trebles. Highest return possible is 210/1, lowest return is 161/1 at Bet365.