World Matchplay: Wednesday night’s best bets from Winter Gardens

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DARTS expert Boring Winners (@BoringWinners) has nailed nine winners from his last 11 World Matchplay selections. Here’s his verdict on Wednesday evening’s action.

World Matchplay Darts | 26th July 2017 | Sky Sports

Another brilliant day on Tuesday evening with three winners from four bets, all at great odds of 7/4, 7/4 and 11/8.

Wednesday’s matches aren’t as great for betting but I’ve still found two brilliant angles and one I’m also keen on, to share…

Dave Chisnall v Alan Norris | Wednesday 19:15 | Sky Sports

First up, I’m backing Dave Chisnall -2.5 handicap and Most 180s at 11/8 with SkyBet – I asked William Hill for a price on the same selection but they only offered 3/4 , so already there’s a big discrepancy.

Chisnall made the quarter-final here last year and I expect him to repeat that again. ‘Chizzy’ wasn’t at his brilliant best in the 1st Round when defeating Mervyn King 10-7, averaging 95, hitting seven maximums and hitting 32% of his doubles.

It wasn’t a bad performance but ‘Chizzy’ is a lot better than that.

Alan Norris opened his account with a 10-5 win over Kim Huybrechts. He averaged 90 on the night, didn’t hit a single maximum and hit 43% of his doubles. The only thing that I expect to change from that is Norris hitting a few 180s and scoring less on the doubles.

I don’t see Norris’ average coming up as he never really deviates from around the 90 average. Like I said about the Suljovic match yesterday, I see a much better scope for improvement in ‘Chizzy’ and I see Norris playing much the same as in the 1st Round.

I don’t really even see Norris troubling Chisnall and even if ‘Chizzy’ is off his game, I still think he’ll win.

Chisnall is the best 180 hitter in the game – he hit seven on the opening night compared to Norris’s nought and in his last five games, Norris has hit just seven 180s over 52 legs, at an average of a 180 every 7.5 legs.

In Chisnall’s last five games he’s hit 22 180s over 56 legs, which is an average of a 180 every 2.5 legs. Based on these averages you would expect ‘Chizzy’ to hit three times more 180s than Norris.

Phil Taylor v Raymond van Barneveld | Wednesday 21:30 | Sky Sports

Next is the El Clasico of darts and this should be a brilliant and very close match. I’ve backed Phil Taylor Over 2.5 180s, Raymond van Barneveld Over 3.5 180s, Over 16.5 Legs, and Over 99.5 Checkout (1/1 SkyBet)

First of all the checkout should easily come in. The two times these met in the Premier League, both players on each occasion hit a checkout over 100 over a much shorter format.

I can’t see neither player not getting to six legs for the over 16.5 legs as they’re too evenly matched. Taylor has a brilliant record at the Winter Gardens but Barney will want to land the spoils. Both players are too good and have too much pride to lose this game by a good distance, so I see it going near a tie-break.

And lastly, 180s; these are two very low lines for both players. When they last met, both players hit four 180s each over a match that just went to 10 legs. Barney hit six 180s in his first match while Taylor only hit two but he never really had to come out of second gear against Gerwyn Price.

Michael van Gerwen v Simon Whitlock | Wednesday 22:30 | Sky Sports

Finally, I’m on Michael van Gerwen -2.5 handicap, Simon Whitlock Over 2.5 180s, Michael van Gerwen Over 4.5 180s and Over 99 Checkout at 11/10 with SkyBet.

I hope Simon can make a game of this – and I think he can – but Michael van Gerwen will win by at least three legs.

These two have already met twice this year with MVG winning 6-2 and 10-6. Across those two games Whitlock hit 13 180s and MVG hit 14 180s so surely three from Whitlock and five from MVG is asking for very little.

‘Mighty Mike’ was messing with Stephen Bunting towards the latter stages of their match on Monday and still beat him 10-4. MVG was never pushed in that game but still hit six maximums and a 160 checkout.

Whitlock played decent on Monday when beating Kyle Andersen 10-5. It wasn’t the best performance but he still won a match on a major stage by five legs so that will do his confidence the world of good.

He’ll love nothing better then to topple the world number 1 especially after the smug comments MVG made after beating Bunting, saying he didn’t see Whitlock as competition.

Whitlock only hit one maximum on Monday but when he’s in-from, he hits them for fun. I still believe MVG will win comfortably but I also think Whitlock will push him in spells in the game.

Best Bets

Dave Chisnall v Alan Norris – Dave Chisnall -2.5 handicap and Most 180s (11/8 SkyBet)

Phil Taylor v Raymond van Barneveld – Phil Taylor Over 2.5 180s, Raymond van Barneveld Over 3.5 180s, Over 16.5 Legs, and Over 99.5 Checkout (1/1 SkyBet)

Michael van Gerwen v Simon Whitlock – Michael van Gerwen -2.5 handicap, Simon Whitlock Over 2.5 180s, Michael van Gerwen Over 4.5 180s and Over 99 Checkout (11/10 SkyBet)

 

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