World Matchplay: Two value angles for Thursday’s quarter-finals

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DARTS expert Boring Winners (@BoringWinners) has been in outstanding form at the World Matchplay. Here’s his verdict on Thursday’s action.

World Matchplay Darts | 27th July 2017 | Sky Sports

It was a day at the office on Wednesday; the poor finishing of Dave Chisnall and Raymond van Barneveld really cost us. But I suppose we were due a bad day with the great run of form we’ve been having.

Anyway, were into the quarter-finals now. The format has changed from best of 21 legs to best of 31 legs, so longer formats should see more 180s and more of a chance for certain players to distance themselves from their opposition.

Daryl Gurney v Mensur Suljovic | Thursday 19:20 | Sky Sports

First up, I’m on Daryl Gurney to win, Daryl Gurney Over 7 180s, Mensur Suljovic Over 3 180s and Daryl Gurney -2 180 handicap at 12/5 with William Hill. It’s a bit of a mouthful but right off the bat these are incredible odds, I would’ve expected around 6/4 so I was very shocked to see 12/5 available.

Daryl has been the story of the tournament so far after knocking out second favourite Gary Andersen in the last round. Gurney averaged 103 and hit 55% of his doubles and won 11-9. Anderson played exceptionally as well averaging 105 but he did give Gurney opportunities with his finishing.

Don’t expect another performance like that from Gurney; Gary’s quick style of play suited Gurney as he could get into a rhythm.

Suljovic is a much for methodical player who will slow down the pace of the game. Gurney has all lost his last three encounters with Suljovic but they were over much shorter formats and Gurney is playing a lot better now then he was in those games.

So far in this tournament Gurney has outscored Suljovic by a long way and also been on level par with Suljovic’s finishing. Gurney’s scoring will give him chances to break on Suljovic’s throw throughout the game, Suljovic won’t get these chances to break Gurney on his throw.

It will all come down to Gurney’s finishing. Gurney has been cool and calm all week; he didn’t go running around after beating Anderson so that shows maturity in the man and his focus is completely on the darts and beating Suljovic.

I can’t see the 180s part losing. Gurney is averaging a 180 every 2.5 legs so far in this tournament – this game should go at least 26 legs, if it does go 26 legs you’d expect Gurney to hit 10 180s.

Even before this tournament a fortnight ago in Las Vegas, Gurney hit 15 180s in the three games he played against the top three players in the world over 41 legs. which is an average of a 180 every 2.7 legs – so there is consistency in Gurney’s 180 game. He should breeze past seven maximums in a long format like this.

While Mensur is not as prolific as Gurney, he is still very consistent. Suljovic has hit three 180s in both games so far in this tournament over 31 legs. This averages out as a 180 every five legs, so should the game go 26 legs you’d expect around five from him.

If Gurney does reach the eight 180s mark, I see the -2 180 handicap landing, I can’t see Suljovic getting many maximums. Gurney will need to win the 180 game by at least three for this to land.

Gurney beat prolific 180 hitter Andersen in the last round by three maximums. The most maximums I can see Suljovic getting is six so Gurney should get at least nine cover this handicap.

Peter Wright v Darren Webster | Thursday 21:45 | Sky Sports

Next I’m on Peter Wright -3.5 legs, Peter Wright Over 5.5 180s and Darren Webster Over 3.5 180s at evens with SkyBet.

Wright was exceptional when beating Cristo Reyes 11-4, averaging 104 and hitting 78% of his doubles. I think that will give the man huge confidence going into this.

For the -3.5 to win, Wright has to win by 16-12 or better. I can’t see Darren getting more than 12 legs off Wright; he will play phenomenal for three legs at a time but his consistency is the problem.

Wright has more experience playing on the bigger stages over longer formats. Darren will pick up legs but Wright is just a far better player who scores more and finishes better. Not much analysis needed here.

Wright only hit three maximums in the last round but he hit 15 140s so their could’ve easily been more maximums. Over the longer format he should hit at least five.

Two weeks ago in Vegas he hit seven 180s in 15 legs against Daryl Gurney so he’s more than capable. Webster should hit four maximums – he hit three against West but like Wright, hit a load of 140s so he should be able to find an extra one today. Also Webster hit five in the opening round

Best Bets

Daryl Gurney v Mensur Suljovic – Daryl Gurney to win, Daryl Gurney Over 7 180s, Mensur Suljovic Over 3 180s and Daryl Gurney -2 180 handicap (12/5 with William Hill)

Peter Wright v Darren Webster – Peter Wright -3.5 legs, Peter Wright Over 5.5 180s and Darren Webster Over 3.5 180s (1/1 SkyBet)

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